ATP Almaty Best Bets Including Medvedev vs Duckworth

ATP 250 Almaty semifinals

Duckworth – Medvedev: 18.10.2025 12:00 CEST
H2H: 0-1

James Duckworth has won five straight matches. This week in Almaty, the Australian qualified for the main draw tournament. In the opening main draw round, Duckworth defeated Blanchet in straight sets. The Australian offered and saved two breakpoints. He upset Diallo in the second round after playing for almost three hours. Duckworth served well in the deciding set, not offering any breakpoints. Today in the quarterfinals, he upset Cobolli in straight sets. Once again, Duckworth was great under pressure, saving all five breakpoints.

Daniil Medvedev has won four of his last five matches. Last week in Shanghai, Medvedev was stopped in the semifinals against Rinderknech, losing in three tight sets. It was a solid chance for him to win the Masters 1000 title, but he fumbled under pressure. This week in Almaty, Medvedev defeated Walton in the opening round in straight sets. He trailed 1-4 in the second set, but turned it around. Today in the quarterfinals, the Russian won against Marozsan in straight sets. He offered and saved three breakpoints.

Best Bet to Make

According to the bookies, Duckworth is the heavy underdog in this matchup, but we disagree. He defeated solid hard-court players en route to the semifinals. Today in the quarterfinals, Duckworth demolished Cobolli in straight sets. If he serves well, we expect him to keep this match tight.

That being said, Duckworth covering the games handicap is a value bet.

Value bet/ the best odds: James Duckworth +3.5 games handicap @2.25 @bet365

Moutet – Michelsen: 18.10.2025 15:00 CEST
H2H: 2-1

Corentin Moutet has won three of his last five matches. Two weeks ago in Shanghai, the Frenchman lost to Tien in the opening match in three tight sets. This week in Almaty, Moutet defeated Tomic in the opening round in straight sets. He offered and saved four breakpoints. In the second round, Moutet defeated Shevchenko in straight sets. The Frenchman trailed 1-4 in the opening set and even saved two consecutive set points, but turned it around. Today in the quarterfinals, Moutet defeated Struff in straight sets. Moutet trailed 0-3 in the second set, but turned it around.

Alex Michelsen has won three of his last five matches. This week in Almaty, Michelsen won the opening match against Zhukayev in straight sets. Besides losing his serve once, he dominated throughout the match. The American demolished Vukic in the second round in straight sets. He offered no breakpoints. His toughest challenge happened today in the quarterfinals. After playing for over two hours, Michelsen defeated Mochizuki in three tight sets.

Best Bet to Make

According to the bookies, Moutet is the slight favourite in this matchup, and we agree. So far this week in Almaty, Michelsen has had a favourable draw. His highest-ranked opponent was Vukic, ranked outside the top 80. On the other hand, Moutet has yet to drop a set this week in Almaty. He had several solid results on hard courts this season. We expect him to win.

That being said, Moutet winning is a value bet.

Value bet/ the best odds: Corentin Moutet winning @1.67 @bet365