ATP Australian Open Best Bets Including Alcaraz vs Moutet

ATP Australian Open 1/16-Finals

Alcaraz – Moutet: 23.01.2026 03:30 CEST
H2H: first meeting

Carlos Alcaraz has won four of his last five matches. This week in Melbourne, Alcaraz defeated Walton in the opening round in straight sets. The Spaniard offered only one breakpoint throughout the match. In the second round, Alcaraz defeated Hanfmann in straight sets. The Spaniard trailed 1-3 in the opening set, but turned it around. He has never made it past the quarterfinals here. Last season, Alcaraz was stopped by Djokovic in the quarterfinals, losing in four tight sets.

Corentin Moutet has lost three of his last five matches. This week at the Australian Open, Moutet defeated Schoolkate in the opening round in straight sets. He was better under pressure and deservedly won in straight sets. In the second round, Zheng won the opening set 3-6. However, Moutet won the second and third sets easily. Zheng eventually retired at the beginning of the fourth set.

Best Bet to Make

According to the bookies, Alcaraz is the clear favourite in this matchup, and we partially agree. However, Alcaraz struggled against Hanfmann in the second round. He has never made it past the quarterfinals here. Moutet is always a tricky opponent, and if he has a good day, we expect him to keep this match tighter than what the bookies think.

That being said, Moutet covering the games handicap is a value bet.

Value bet/ the best odds: Corentin Moutet +9.5 games handicap @1.83 @bet365

Cerundolo – Rublev: 23.01.2026 06:00 CEST
H2H: 3-1

Francisco Cerundolo has won three of his last five matches. Last week in Adelaide, Cerundolo lost to Munar in the 1/8-Finals in three tight sets. This week in Melbourne, the Argentine defeated Zhang in the opening round in straight sets. Besides losing his serve twice, Cerundolo dominated on his serve. In the second round, Dzumhur had no chance against him. In less than two hours, Cerundolo defeated Dzumhur in straight sets. He trailed in the opening set 0-2, but turned it around.

Andrey Rublev has won four of his last five matches. This week in Melbourne, Rublev defeated Arnaldi in the opening round in straight sets. He was great under pressure, saving all six breakpoints. In the second round, Rublev defeated Faria in four tight sets. He was solid under pressure, saving ten out of twelve breakpoints. Last season in Melbourne, Rublev lost to Fonseca in the opening round in straight sets. The Russian was a quarterfinalist here three times.

Best Bet to Make

According to the bookies, Cerundolo is the slight underdog in this matchup, but we disagree. He dominated in both matches this week and also leads 3-1 in head-to-head meetings against Rublev. We expect him to keep this match tight, and if he serves well, he will be a better player.

That being said, Cerundolo covering the games handicap is a value bet.

Value bet/ the best odds: Francisco Cerundolo +2.5 games handicap @1.90 @bet365