ATP Bastad Final Prediction: Luciano Darderi vs Jesper De Jong

An ATP 250 title is up for grabs on Sunday at the 2025 Bastad Open in Sweden, and the final match will be a showdown between a two-time ATP Tour champion and a rising underdog. Luciano Darderi will look to claim the third ATP title of his career, while Jesper de Jong aims to play spoiler in his first tour-level final. As always, LWOT has the overview and prediction for the match. 

ATP Bastad Final Prediction

Luciano Darderi vs Jesper de Jong

Head-to-head: First meeting

While de Jong is the lower-ranked player in this matchup, Darderi’s been the underdog in a couple of his Bastad matches as well. He stunned Sebastian Baez in the quarterfinals — losing just two games — and he upset top-seeded Francisco Cerundolo in a third-set tiebreak in the semifinals. Darderi won both of his two ATP finals on clay courts, the most recent being an ATP 250 crown in Morocco during the spring.

Coming off a recent Top 100 debut, de Jong has taken out three seeded players en route to the final. His Friday win was arguably the most impressive: a quarterfinal upset over second-seed and fellow Dutchman Tallon Griekspoor, coming from a set and a break down. A win in the final will likely boost him into the Top 75.

Darderi has served well and converted break-point opportunities when he’s had to. The Italian has hit no less than five aces in each of his matches, and he claimed over 50% of break-point chances against both Cerundolo and Baez. De Jong has been impressive when placing his first serve, winning 83% of first-serve points in his semifinal match against Camilo Ugo Carabelli. Both players will be confident in this match, but it’s hard to look away from De Jong when he’s in his first career final and stunned a higher-ranked compatriot along the way.

The Italian may be the slight favorite to win this match, but I’d argue the match comes down to the mental side of the game rather than tactics and groundstrokes. Both players excel with their movement and forehands on a good day, but the final will pose a tough mental challenge: for Darderi, as the more seasoned player, and for De Jong, who must handle the nerves of his first ATP final. Darderi’s experience and recent big upset over Cerundolo might help him clear the hurdle to win on Sunday.

Prediction: Darderi in 3