ATP Halle Final Prediction: Daniil Medvedev vs Alexander Bublik

The final at the ATP Halle Open is set, and it’s a familiar matchup as Daniil Medvedev takes on Alexander Bublik in a clash of contrasting styles on the lawns of Germany. Medvedev has looked unbothered all week, dropping just a set in four matches, while Bublik has rediscovered the form that saw him lift the trophy here two years ago.

ATP Halle Final Prediction

Daniil Medvedev vs Alexander Bublik

Head-to-Head: Medvedev 6–0 Bublik

Medvedev has made light work of his opponents so far, dispatching Alex Michelsen and Quentin Halys with minimal fuss, and controlling proceedings with his trademark flat groundstrokes and laser-precise returns. While grass has historically been his least comfortable surface, the 2021 finalist is showing a much more assured version of himself this time around, blending improved movement with clever point construction. This is his first final of the season, and he’ll surely be hungry to turn it into his first title in 2025, having failed to win a final at any level in 15 months.

Bublik, meanwhile, has stormed into the final on the back of an electric week. He outplayed Alexandre Muller and Tomas Machac, but his biggest statement came in the second round when he stunned world No. 1 Jannik Sinner in three absorbing sets. Bublik’s grass pedigree is unquestionable—his serve is a weapon on this surface, and his variety and touch can leave opponents flustered. He’s dropped just two sets en route to the final and will be full of belief.

The head-to-head sits at 6–0 in Medvedev’s favor, including a grueling five-set win at this year’s Australian Open. But this will be their first meeting on grass–a surface that arguably favours Bublik more given his explosive first-strike game. Still, Medvedev’s composure and elite returning could neutralize Bublik’s biggest strength and put the Kazakh under pressure in his service games.

Medvedev has the edge in experience and consistency, and his form this week has been rock solid. But Bublik loves the big stage and has a history of catching fire in finals–especially on grass. If he serves well and keeps his unforced errors in check, this could go the distance.

It’s tempting to back the upset given Bublik’s week, but Medvedev looks locked in and overdue for a title this year. Expect a tight affair with moments of brilliance from both men—but the Russian’s superior baseline play and mental fortitude may just see him over the line.
Prediction: Medvedev in 3