ATP Hong Kong Best Bets Including Musetti vs Rublev

ATP 250 Hong Kong semifinals

Musetti – Rublev: 10.01.2026 06:30 CEST
H2H: 0-2

Lorenzo Musetti has won three of his last five matches. This week in Hong Kong, Musetti won the opening match against Etcheverry in three sets, after losing the opening set 6-7. In the quarterfinals, Musetti defeated Wong in straight sets. In the second set, the Italian trailed 1-3, but turned the match around. This is his third appearance in Hong Kong. Reaching the semifinals is his best result here.

Andrey Rublev has won four of his last five matches. This week in Hong Kong, Rublev won the opening match against Wu in three sets, after losing the opening set 3-6. In the quarterfinals, Rublev defeated Borges in straight sets comfortably, as we predicted. He served well, offering and saving only one breakpoint. This is his third appearance in Hong Kong. He was the champion here in 2024. Last season, Rublev lost to Marozsan in the second round.

Best Bet to Make

According to the bookies, this will be a 50-50 matchup, but we disagree. Rublev gradually improved his form this week. He leads 2-0 in head-to-head meetings against Musetti and is a better hard-court player. We expect him to win.

That being said, Rublev winning is a value bet.

Value bet/ the best odds: Andrey Rublev winning @2.00 @bet365

Giron – Bublik: 10.01.2026 10:00 CEST
H2H: 3-1

Marcos Giron has won four of his last five matches. This week in Hong Kong, Giron demolished Djere in the opening round in straight sets. He served well, not offering any breakpoints throughout the match. Giron defeated Muller in the second round in straight sets. In the opening set, the American trailed 1-3, but turned it around. Muller had a chance to serve out the second set, but Giron once again made a comeback. In the quarterfinals, Mmoh retired mid-match, after losing the opening set 3-6 to Giron. This is his debut campaign in Hong Kong.

Alexander Bublik has won three of his last five matches. Bublik is the second seed this week in Hong Kong. In the opening match, the Kazakh defeated van de Zandschulp in straight sets. He offered and saved two breakpoints. In the quarterfinals, Shang stood no chance against Bublik. Once again, the Kazakh served well, offering only one breakpoint and saving it. This is his debut campaign in Hong Kong. Around this time last season, Bublik played in Adelaide, where he lost in the opening round to Kecmanovic.

Best Bet to Make

According to the bookies, Giron is the underdog in this matchup, but we disagree. He has yet to lose a set this week in Hong Kong. The American played his best tennis. On the other hand, Bublik also dominated in both matches this week. However, Giron leads 3-1 in head-to-head meetings. In their last clash on hard court, Giron defeated Bublik in straight sets. We expect Giron to keep this match close.

That being said, Giron covering the games handicap is a value bet.

Value bet/ the best odds: Marcos Giron +3.5 games handicap @1.83 @bet365