ATP Houston Final Prediction: Frances Tiafoe vs Jenson Brooksby

The 2025 ATP Houston final serves up a compelling all-American showdown between Jenson Brooksby and Frances Tiafoe, two players arriving at this stage with very different momentum but a shared hunger for a title. Tiafoe’s consistent performance and serving advantage position him as the favorite. However, Brooksby’s determination and recent form suggest he can challenge the title. Who will raise the title in Houston?

ATP Houston Final Prediction

Frances Tiafoe vs Jenson Brooksby

Head-to-Head: Brooksby 2-0 Tiafoe

For Brooksby, this marks a stunning return to relevance. Ranked outside the top 500 and coming in as a qualifier, he’s battled through multiple long matches, including saving three match points against third seed Alejandro Tabilo, and grinding out three-set wins over Aleksandar Kovacevic and the top seed Tommy Paul in the semifinals. It’s his first tour-level final on clay and his most significant result since returning from suspension.

Tiafoe, meanwhile, is back in familiar territory. A finalist at ATP Houston last year and the champion in 2023, he’s aiming to make it third time lucky with another title run. His serving has been particularly strong this week, and he looked sharp in his semifinal win over Brandon Nakashima, fighting off his opponent’s push for a comeback late in the second set. The former top-10 player came into the tournament needing a spark after a slow start to 2025, and this run has offered just that.

Their head-to-head adds an extra layer of intrigue. Brooksby leads 2–0, including a straight-sets win in the 2022 Atlanta semifinal, the last time they faced off. His unorthodox style and ability to neutralize pace have historically frustrated Tiafoe, who thrives in faster, more rhythmic exchanges. For Tiafoe to turn the tide, he must stay aggressive behind his serve, dictate rallies early, and avoid getting dragged into the kind of physical baseline chess matches Brooksby excels in. Conversely, Brooksby’s most significant challenge might be endurance; he’s coming off several physically draining matches, and whether he can maintain his intensity in a fourth consecutive three-setter could prove decisive.

Tiafoe has the experience and weapons to win, but if Brooksby’s legs hold up, his past success in this matchup and current momentum make this final anything but straightforward. Slight edge to Tiafoe, but an upset is very much on the table.

Prediction: Brooksby in 3