ATP Shanghai Best Bets Including Medvedev vs Tien

ATP Masters 1000 Shanghai 1/8-Finals

Borges – de Minaur: 08.10.2025 08:00 CEST
H2H: first meeting

Nuno Borges has won four of his last five matches. Last week in Tokyo, Borges lost to Fritz in the 1/8-Finals in straight sets. This week in Shanghai, Borges won against van de Zandschulp in the opening round in straight sets. After playing for over two hours, Borges won in two tiebreaks. In the second round, he defeated Vukic in straight sets. He saved two consecutive set points in the opening set tiebreak. Borges defeated Shang in the third round in three tight sets after spending almost three hours on the court.

Alex de Minaur has won four of his last five matches. This week in Shanghai, de Minaur won the opening match against Ugo Carabelli in straight sets. He served well, not offering any breakpoints. In the second round, the Australian won against Majchrzak in straight sets. In the opening set, de Minaur demolished Borges 6-1. However, in the second set, de Minaur lost his serve and trailed 3-4.

Best Bet to Make

According to the bookies, de Minaur is the big favourite in this matchup, and we agree. Borges struggled in the third round against Shang. On the other hand, de Minaur demolished Ugo Carabelli and Majchrzak this week. We expect the Australian to dominate and win easily.

That being said, de Minaur covering the games handicap is a value bet.

Value bet/ the best odds: Alex de Minaur -4.5 games handicap @1.73 @bet365

Tien – Medvedev: 08.10.2025 14:00 CEST
H2H: 2-0

Learner Tien has won four of his last five matches. This week in Shanghai, the American won both matches in three tight sets. In the second round, Tien won against Moutet in three tight sets, after losing the opening set 4-6. The American defeated Norrie in the third round in straight sets. This is his debut campaign in Shanghai. He hopes for a solid result to come closer to the top 30 in the rankings.

Daniil Medvedev has won four of his last five matches. Last week in Beijing, the Russian retired mid-match against Tien in the semifinals. This week in Shanghai, Medvedev defeated Svrcina in the opening round in straight sets. He served well, not offering any breakpoints. In the third round, Medvedev defeated Davidovich Fokina in straight sets. He offered and saved only one breakpoint. He was the champion here in 2019. Last season in Shanghai, Sinner defeated Medvedev in the quarterfinals in straight sets.

Best Bet to Make

According to the bookies, Tien is the underdog in this matchup, but we disagree. He leads 2-0 in head-to-head meetings against Medvedev. Both matches were this season. At the beginning of the season, Tien won at the Australian Open under similar conditions. If he serves well, we expect a tight match that could go either way.

That being said, Tien covering the games handicap is a value bet.

Value bet/ the best odds: Learner Tien +3.5 games handicap @1.91 @bet365