ATP Shanghai Best Bets Including Rublev vs Nishioka

ATP Masters 1000 Shanghai 1/32-Finals

Auger-Aliassime – Tabilo: 04.10.2025 06:30 CEST
H2H: first meeting

Felix Auger-Aliassime has won four of his last five matches. The last match he played was at the US Open, where he lost to Sinner in the semifinals in a tight four-set match. Since then, the Canadian has taken some time off to rest and prepare for the upcoming Asian swing.

Alejandro Tabilo has won four of his last five matches. Last week in Tokyo, Tabilo lost to Bergs in the opening round in three tight sets. This week in Shanghai, the Chilean won both qualifying matches in straight sets. In the final qualifying round, Tabilo defeated Mayot in straight sets. He offered and saved seven breakpoints. In the opening main draw, he defeated Giron in straight sets.

Best Bet to Make

According to the bookies, Tabilo is the slight underdog in this matchup, but we disagree. He is in great form, having just recently won the title in Chengdu and three straight matches in straight sets here in Shanghai. We expect him to keep this match tight.

That being said, Tabilo covering the games handicap is a value bet.

Value bet/ the best odds: Alejandro Tabilo +2.5 games handicap @1.80 @bet365

Nakashima – Majchrzak: 04.10.2025 06:30 CEST
H2H: 2-0

Brandon Nakashima has won three of his last five matches. Last week in Tokyo, Nakashima lost to Alcaraz in the quarterfinals in straight sets.

Kamil Majchrzak has won three of his last five matches. The last match he played before the ATP Shanghai was at the US Open. Majchrzak retired mid-match against Riedi in the third round. Since then, the Pole has recovered from an injury. This week in Shanghai, Majchrzak defeated Quinn in the opening round in straight sets.

Best Bet to Make

According to the bookies, Nakashima is the slight favourite in this matchup, and we agree. The American leads 2-0 in head-to-head meetings and had a solid run last week in Tokyo. We expect him to be a better player tomorrow.

That being said, Nakashima winning is a value bet.

Value bet/ the best odds: Brandon Nakashima winning @1.50 @bet365

Rublev – Nishioka: 04.10.2025 06:30 CEST
H2H: 3-2

Andrey Rublev has lost three of his last five matches. Last week in Beijing, Rublev lost to Cobolli in the opening round in straight sets.

Yoshihito Nishioka has won three of his last five matches. Last week in Tokyo, Nishioka lost to Darderi in the opening round in straight sets. This week in Shanghai, he qualified for the main draw tournament by winning both matches in straight sets. In the opening main draw round, Nishioka defeated Shevchenko in straight sets.

Best Bet to Make

According to the bookies, Nishioka is the heavy underdog in this matchup, but we disagree. He demolished Shevchenko 6-1, 6-2 in the opening round. On the other hand, Rublev is in terrible form. We expect a tight match that could go either way.

That being said, Nishioka covering the games handicap is a value bet.

Value bet/ the best odds: Yoshihito Nishioka +3.5 games handicap @2.00 @bet365