ATP Shanghai Best Bets Including Rune vs Mpetshi Perricard

ATP Masters 1000 Shanghai 1/8-Finals

Diallo – Bergs: 07.10.2025 06:30 CEST
H2H: 3-0

Gabriel Diallo has won three of his last five matches. Last week in Tokyo, Diallo lost in the opening round against Fritz in three tight sets. This week in Shanghai, Diallo defeated Bonzi in the opening match in straight sets. He served well, not offering any breakpoints. Goffin retired mid-match against Diallo in the third round. Last season in Shanghai, the Canadian lost against Davidovich Fokina in the opening round in straight sets.

Zizou Bergs has won four of his last five matches. This week in Shanghai, he upset Korda in the opening round in straight sets. He trailed 1-4 in the second set, but turned it around. In the second round, Ruud retired in the deciding set against Bergs. The Belgian defeated Cerundolo in the third round in straight sets. Last season in Shanghai, Bergs lost to Dimitrov in the second round in three tight sets.

Best Bet to Make

According to the bookies, Diallo is the slight favourite in this matchup and we agree. The Canadian enjoys playing on fast courts and has dominated in both matches this week in Shanghai. So far this season, Diallo defeated Bergs twice, both times in straight sets. He leads 3-0 in head-to-head meetings and we expect him to prolong his winning streak against Bergs.

That being said, Diallo winning is a value bet.

Value bet/ the best odds: Gabriel Diallo winning @1.57 @bet365

Mpetshi Perricard – Rune: 07.10.2025 08:00 CEST
H2H: 1-1

Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard lost three of his last five matches. Last week in Beijing, the Frenchman lost to Musetti in the opening round in three tight sets. This week in Shanghai, the Frenchman defeated Nardi in straight sets. Besides losing his serve in the second set, he dominated on his serve. In the third round, Mpetshi Perricard upset Fritz in straight sets. That was also his most significant win. He served well, not offering any breakpoints throughout the match.

Holger Rune has won four of his last five matches. Last week in Tokyo, Rune lost to Brooksby in the quarterfinals in straight sets. Last season in Shanghai, he lost to Fritz in the fourth round in straight sets. This is his third appearance in Shanghai. This week in Shanghai, Rune defeated Baez in the opening match in straight sets. In the third round, the Dane dominated against Humbert, winning in straight sets. Last season in Shanghai, Rune lost to Fritz in the fourth round in straight sets.

Best Bet to Make

According to the bookies, Mpetshi Perricard is the slight underdog in this matchup, but we disagree. He defeated world number 4 in the third round. The Frenchman served well in both matches this week. Last season in Basel, under similar conditions, Mpetshi Perricard defeated Rune in straight sets. If he serves well, we expect him to keep this match tight.

That being said, Mpetshi Perricard covering the games handicap is a value bet.

Value bet/ the best odds: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard +2.5 games handicap @1.73 @bet365