ATP Tokyo Best Bets Including Alcaraz vs Bergs

ATP 500 Tokyo 1/8-Finals

Alcaraz – Bergs: 27.09.2025 10:30 CEST
H2H: first meeting

Carlos Alcaraz has won four of his last five matches. Since winning the US Open, Alcaraz took a two-week break. Last week, the Spaniard played in the Laver Cup. He lost his opening match against Fritz in straight sets. In his second match, Alcaraz demolished Cerundolo in straight sets. This week in Tokyo, the Spaniard defeated Baez in straight sets.

Zizou Bergs has lost three of his last five matches. Last week in Chengdu, Bergs lost to Shang in the opening match in three tight sets. This will be his debut campaign in Tokyo. In the opening round, Bergs defeated Tabilo in three sets, after losing the opening set.

Best Bet to Make

According to the bookies, Alcaraz is the heavy favourite, and we partially agree. However, in his opening match against Baez, he injured himself. On the other hand, Bergs played well in the second and third sets. We expect Bergs to serve well and keep this match tight.

That being said, Bergs covering the games handicap is a value bet.

Value bet/ the best odds: Zizou Bergs +6.5 games handicap @1.62 @bet365

Nakashima – Fucsovics: 27.09.2025 05:30 CEST
H2H: 0-1

Brandon Nakashima has won three of his last five matches. Last week in Chengdu, Nakashima had a solid run. He eventually lost to Tabilo in the semifinals in straight sets. This week, Nakashima defeated Thompson in three sets after losing the opening set. Last season in Tokyo, Nakashima lost against Humbert in the second round in straight sets.

Marton Fucsovics has won three of his last five matches. Last week in the Davis Cup, Fucsovics lost to Rodionov. This week in Tokyo, Fucsovics qualified for the main draw tournament by winning both qualifying matches in straight sets. In the opening main draw round, Fucsovics defeated Tiafoe in three sets.

Best Bet to Make

According to the bookies, this will be a 50-50 matchup, but we disagree. Fucsovics has already won three matches this week in Tokyo. On the other hand, Nakashima struggled in the opening match. In their only head-to-head meetings, Fucsovics defeated Nakashima in the opening round on hard in straight sets. We expect a similar outcome.

That being said, Fucsovics winning is a value bet.

Value bet/ the best odds: Marton Fucsovics winning @2.00 @bet365

Quinn – Rune: 27.09.2025 09:00 CEST
H2H: first meeting

Ethan Quinn has lost three of his last five matches. This week in Tokyo, Quinn qualified for the main draw tournament. In the opening main draw round, the American defeated Michelsen in straight sets.

Holger Rune has lost three of his last five matches. Last season in Tokyo, the Dane lost to Fils in the semifinals in straight sets. This will be his second appearance in Tokyo. In the opening main draw round, Rune defeated Medjedovic in straight sets.

Best Bet to Make

According to the bookies, Rune is the favourite in this matchup, and we agree. He has all the weapons to dominate the rallies against Quinn. He is also more experienced, and we expect him to complete the job efficiently.

That being said, Rune covering the games handicap is a value bet.

Value bet/ the best odds: Holger Rune -3.5 games handicap @2.00 @bet365