ATP Tokyo Best Bets Including Fritz vs Borges

ATP 500 Tokyo 1/16-Finals

Vukic – Altmaier: 26.09.2025 04:00 CEST
H2H: 1-1

Aleksandar Vukic has won four of his last five matches. Last week in Hangzhou, Vukic lost to Bublik in the second round in a tight three-set match. This week in Tokyo, the Australian qualified for the main draw tournament. In the opening main draw round, Vukic defeated Dzumhur in three tight sets.

Daniel Altmaier has won three of his last five matches. The last match he played before the ATP Tokyo was at the US Open, where he retired mid-match against de Minaur in the third round. This week in Tokyo, the German defeated Shapovalov in straight sets.

Best Bet to Make

According to the bookies, this will be a 50-50 matchup, but we disagree. Altmaier played his best tennis against Shapovalov today. On the other hand, Vukic struggled against Dzumhur, who was out of form. We expect Altmaier to be a better player and win.

That being said, Altmaier winning is a value bet.

Value bet/ the best odds: Daniel Altmaier winning @1.91 @bet365

Borges – Fritz: 26.09.2025 09:00 CEST
H2H: 0-1

Nuno Borges has lost three of his last five matches. The last match he played before the ATP Tokyo was in the Davis Cup, where he was upset by Buse in three tight sets. He struggled with his form for the past few months. This week in Tokyo, Borges defeated Watanuki in the opening round in three sets, after losing the opening set.

Taylor Fritz has won four of his last five matches. Last week at the Laver Cup, the American represented the World team. In his opening match, Fritz defeated Alcaraz in straight sets. In his second match, Fritz won against Zverev in straight sets. This week in Tokyo, he defeated Diallo in the opening round in three tight sets.

Best Bet to Make

According to the bookies, Fritz is the favourite in this matchup, and we agree. He played extremely well in the Laver Cup and leads 1-0 in head-to-head meetings. Borges struggled with his form for the past few months. We expect Fritz to dominate and win easily.

That being said, Fritz covering the games handicap is a value bet.

Value bet/ the best odds: Taylor Fritz -3.5 games handicap @1.67 @bet365

Shimabukuro – Korda: 26.09.2025 05:30 CEST
H2H: first meeting

Sho Shimabukuro has won four of his last five matches. This week in Tokyo, Shimabukuro qualified for the main draw tournament. In the opening main draw round, he upset Machac in straight sets.

Sebastian Korda has lost three of his last five matches. The constant injuries ruined the young American’s season. Last week in Hangzhou, Wu upset Korda in the second round in three tight sets. This week in Tokyo, Korda defeated Giron in three tight sets in the opening match.

Best Bet to Make

According to the bookies, Korda is the slight favourite in this matchup, but we disagree. Shimabukuro played well this week in Tokyo, and with the help of a home crowd, we expect him to keep this match tight.

That being said, Shimabukuro covering the games handicap is a value bet.

Value bet/ the best odds: Sho Shimabukuro +3.5 games handicap @1.83 @bet365