ATP Tokyo Final Alcaraz vs Fritz Best Bets

ATP 500 Tokyo final

Alcaraz – Fritz: 30.09.2025 11:00 CEST
H2H: 3-1

Carlos Alcaraz has won five straight matches. Since winning the US Open, Alcaraz took a two-week break. Last week, the Spaniard played in the Laver Cup. He lost his opening match against Fritz in straight sets. In his second match, Alcaraz demolished Cerundolo in straight sets. This week in Tokyo, the Spaniard defeated Baez in the opening round in straight sets. Bergs had no answer for Alcaraz in the second round. The Spaniard won in straight sets easily. In the quarterfinals, Alcaraz served well against Nakashima, not offering any breakpoints. He won 6-2, 6-4, shortly after playing one hour.

His toughest challenge happened in the semifinals today against Ruud. After losing the opening set 3-6, Alcaraz reduced his unforced errors and turned the match around. In the second and third sets, Alcaraz saved all breakpoints.

Taylor Fritz has won six straight matches. Last week at the Laver Cup, the American team represented the world. In his opening match, Fritz defeated Alcaraz in straight sets. In his second match, Fritz won against Zverev in straight sets. This week in Tokyo, he defeated Diallo in the opening round in three tight sets. After losing the opening set, Fritz stepped up his level and turned the match around. In the second round, Fritz defeated Borges in straight sets after spending two hours on the court. He trailed 1-3 in the second set, but turned it around. His toughest challenge happened in the quarterfinals. Fritz defeated Korda in three tight sets after spending almost three hours on the court. He was great under pressure, saving six out of seven breakpoints.

Today in the semifinals, Fritz won against Brooksby in straight sets. He offered and saved two breakpoints. Fritz served thirteen aces without any double faults. The American was the champion here in 2022. Last season, Fritz lost to Fils in the opening round in three tight sets.

Best Bets to Make

Main Bet

According to the bookies, Alcaraz is the favourite in this matchup, and we agree. Except for the quarterfinal match against Ruud, the Spaniard dominated this week in Tokyo. On the other hand, Fritz had a favourable draw this week, but struggled against Diallo and Korda en route to the final. If we are not looking at the Laver Cup, Alcaraz leads 2-0 in head-to-head meetings against Fritz. He is a better player, and we expect him to dominate and win easily.

That being said, Alcaraz covering the games handicap is a value bet.

Value bet/ the best odds: Carlos Alcaraz -4.5 games handicap @2.25 @bet365

Second Bet

Alcaraz served well throughout the tournament. On the other hand, Fritz offered more than enough breakpoints this week. We expect Alcaraz to break once in the opening set and get the comfortable first set win.

That being said, either player to win the opening set 6-3 or 6-4 is a value bet.

Value bet/ the best odds: Either player winning the first set 6-3 or 6-4 @-170 @FanDuel