ATP US Open Final Sinner vs Alcaraz Best Bets

ATP US Open final

Sinner – Alcaraz: 07.09.2025 20:00 CEST
H2H: 6-10

Jannik Sinner has won six straight matches. The Italian is the defending champion in New York. Last season, Sinner defeated Fritz in the final in straight sets. This week, Sinner defeated Kopriva in straight sets comfortably. He saved two breakpoints. In the second round, Sinner saved all five breakpoints and won against Popyrin in straight sets. His toughest challenge came in the third round against Shapovalov. Sinner lost the opening set, but turned the match around and won in four tight sets. In the 1/8-Finals, Sinner demolished Bublik in straight sets, whilst losing only three games altogether. Musetti also had no answer for Sinner’s game in the quarterfinals. Sinner won in straight sets just after playing for two hours. He was great under pressure, saving all seven breakpoints. In the semifinals, Sinner defeated Auger-Aliassime in four sets. Besides losing the second set 3-6, the Italian dominated throughout the match. He was great under pressure, saving nine out of ten breakpoints.

Carlos Alcaraz has won twelve straight matches. Two weeks ago in Cincinnati, Alcaraz won the Masters 1000 title. He was the champion here in 2022. This week, the Spaniard outlasted Opelka in the opening round in straight sets. He offered and saved three breakpoints. In the second round, Alcaraz demolished Bellucci in straight sets. The Spaniard has yet to lose a set in the tournament. In the third and fourth rounds, Alcaraz demolished Darderi and Rinderknech in straight sets. He is almost unplayable, but he also had a favourable draw so far. In the quarterfinals, the Spaniard defeated Lehecka in straight sets as well. He served well throughout the match, not offering any breakpoints. Last season, Van de Zandschulp upset him in the second round. In the semifinals, the Spaniard defeated Djokovic in straight sets. He trailed 0-3 in the second set, but turned it around. Alcaraz served well throughout the match, offering only one breakpoint.

Best Bets to Make

Main Bet

According to the bookies, this will be a 50-50 matchup, but we disagree. Sinner is just a slightly better hard-court player at this moment. Looking at the odds in Cincinnati, just two weeks ago, Sinner was a solid favourite. There are not many things that have changed since then. We expect the Italian to play more safely than Alcaraz and make fewer unforced errors than the Spaniard.

That being said, Sinner winning is a value bet.

Value bet/ the best odds: Jannik Sinner winning @1.80 @bet365

Second Bet

Carlos Alcaraz served well throughout the tournament. However, he has not hit many aces in any of the matches. The most aces he served were in the third round against Darderi, when he served nine aces. Sinner is a great returner, and with his body constitution, we expect him to play well against the Spaniard’s serve. The line is set at 9.5, which is too much. Looking at their head-to-head meetings at the Grand Slam level, Alcaraz has gone over this line only once, which was at Wimbledon.

That being said, Alcaraz hitting less than 10 aces is a value bet.

Value bet/ the best odds: Carlos Alcaraz under 9.5 aces @-112 @FanDuel