ATP US Open Sinner – Auger-Aliassime Best Bets

ATP US Open semifinals

Sinner – Auger-Aliassime: 06.09.2025 01:00 CEST
H2H: 1-3

Jannik Sinner has won five straight matches. The Italian is the defending champion in New York. Last season, Sinner defeated Fritz in the final in straight sets. This week, Sinner defeated Kopriva in straight sets comfortably. He saved two breakpoints. In the second round, Sinner saved all five breakpoints and won against Popyrin in straight sets. His toughest challenge came in the third round against Shapovalov. Sinner lost the opening set, but turned the match around and won in four tight sets. In the 1/8-Finals, Sinner demolished Bublik in straight sets, whilst losing only three games altogether. Musetti also had no answer for Sinner’s game in the quarterfinals. Sinner won in straight sets just after playing for two hours. He was great under pressure, saving all seven breakpoints.

Felix Auger-Aliassime has won five straight matches. In the past two editions, the Canadian exited both times in the opening round. This week, Auger-Aliassime won against Harris in the opening round in straight sets. He trailed 3-5 and saved three set points in the second set. In the second round, Felix defeated Safiullin in straight sets easily. He saved six out of seven breakpoints. His toughest challenge happened in the third round against Zverev. After losing the opening set 4-6, the Canadian turned the match around, winning in four tight sets. In the 1/8-Finals, Auger-Aliassime trailed 2-4 in the opening set, but turned it around and won in straight sets against Rublev. He ended the match with 13 aces and four double faults. His toughest challenge happened in the quarterfinals against de Minaur. After losing the opening set 6-7, the Canadian turned the match around after playing for over four hours. Auger-Aliassime trailed 2-5 in the fourth set, but turned it around.

Best Bets to Make

Main Bet

According to the bookies, Sinner is the heavy favourite in this matchup, and we agree. He is the best player in the world and had almost no challenge en route to the semifinals. Auger-Aliassime did his maximum, but we expect Sinner to be a clear favourite and win easily.

That being said, Sinner covering the games handicap is a value bet.

Value bet/ the best odds: Jannik Sinner -7.5 games handicap @1.80 @bet365

Second Bet

Jannik Sinner served well throughout the tournament. However, his ace line is too high. In their last meeting, just a month ago in Cincinnati, Sinner served only two aces against Auger-Aliassime. We expect a short match with Sinner winning easily. Auger-Aliassime covers the court well on the return, so we expect the Italian to serve fewer than nine aces tonight.

That being said, under 8.5 aces is a value bet.

Value bet/ the best odds: under 8.5 aces @-120 @FanDuel