Can Daniil Medvedev Continue To Play Spoiler?

Every new tennis season brings fresh excitement and, with it, different hopes and predictions. It generally is not until the new season gets underway that one starts to gain perspective on which expectations might prove attainable and which are unlikely to materialise.

For example, it was expected that one of Carlos Alcaraz or Jannik Sinner would win the first slam of the year, with many tipping the Spaniard beforehand to complete his career Grand Slam, and so it proved. However, another expectation, and one that everyone was expecting early doors, and maybe even one that has come to define tennis nowadays, was that we’d get many match-ups involving those aforementioned two, as they both battle to be the top dog.

However, as is the case with tennis and sports in general, things don’t always go according to plan.

Can Medvedev Continue To Play Spoiler?

We are now approaching the end of March, and we have yet to have the first battle involving those two.

It was probably not what anyone expected, and with the Miami Open final being the next chance of a possible meeting between both players, we might well have to wait until the end of the month before getting the first shot in anger between those two. Otherwise, we might be in for a much longer wait than anyone could have possibly predicted.

Enter the Former World No. 1

At Indian Wells, Daniil Medvedev became the third player this year to effectively prevent a possible meeting between Alcaraz and Sinner when he dispatched Alcaraz in the semifinal in impressive style, handing the No. 1 seed his first defeat this year.

Before then, and surprisingly, it was the usually very consistent Sinner who had struggled for form, having been beaten in the semifinals of the Australian Open by an inspired Djokovic, and then again at the Qatar Open by Jakub Mensik. Both his victors this year have since struggled with form, fitness, or motivation, making it unlikely they’ll throw up any further surprises, with Djokovic having pulled out of Miami altogether. It now leaves Medvedev as the only player who has beaten either of the pair, looking the most likely of any on tour to repeat the feat.

The big Russian struggled for form throughout last year and, despite being much improved this year and having already won two titles this season, still looked out of sorts for much of the year, losing early at both the Australian Open and the Qatar Open.

However, all that changed over the past few weeks.

Medvedev Heats Up

First, he won the Dubai Tennis Championship without playing the final, but still looked inspired throughout his run. He took it several notches up when he produced his best performance in years to knock out Alcaraz in straight sets, in a match the mercurial Spaniard seemed helpless to what was happening in front of him. He then followed that with a steady performance against Sinner, which the Italian won in two close tiebreaks, in which Medvedev really should have clinched one of them, at the very least.

Despite ultimately failing to win the title, it certainly raised questions about whether the eccentric Russian might be edging slowly towards his best and what impact it might have on the tour.

There is no doubt that, at his very best, he remains one of the very best players in the world, particularly on hard courts, where his flat low shots can prove very problematic for even the best players. He was once thought to be the one who would take on the mantle from Djokovic before the emergence of Alcaraz and Sinner. He has now had to settle into a secondary role and watch Alcaraz and Sinner take all the headlines.

It is perhaps unlikely that he can become a consistent challenger to the top two for the major trophies, owing to several factors, not least his limited effectiveness on clay and grass. But one wonders if he can maybe settle into the role of a spoiler, preventing matchups between the pair from becoming a routine affair.

Based on his previous antics, you can guess that the idea of being the guy who breaks up the party is something he would absolutely relish.

The Magnitude of the Task

If he is to achieve that in Miami, though, and knock one of them out, it would probably be more impressive than anything he’s done this year, as his projected path includes Ben Shelton and Alexander Zverev, before a possible match-up with Sinner.

Assuming Alcaraz makes it to the final, for Medvedev to play spoiler, he might find himself having to beat Sinner, a player he has won only once in their last ten official matches. Lately, that has felt like an almost impossible feat.

While he has clearly demonstrated that he has the game to beat Alcaraz at the biggest stages, having also done so at the 2023 US Open, his recent match-ups against Sinner tell a whole other story. He would probably have to play the match of his life, and even then, it might not be enough, given the Italian’s dominance when playing well lately, especially in this particular matchup. However, as we saw at the Australian Open with Djokovic, anything is possible. And if there’s one player crazy enough to believe it can be done as well as being equipped to do it, it’s Medvedev.

The feeling now, though, is that it is unlikely he pulls off the unthinkable, not least because he potentially faces some tough matches, as highlighted, even before he might run into Sinner. What seems more probable is that we finally get our first Sincaraz match in Miami.

ATP Miami Primer

However, it is also not a given that the Spaniard himself makes it to the final, as he also faces some real battles of his own. He is scheduled to play the exciting Brazilian Joao Fonseca in his first run-out of this tournament, a matchup that already generated a lot of excitement when the draws first came out. It has already been touted as the match of the early rounds, and it’ll certainly be interesting to see how Alcaraz fares in that one, and it should give an early hint about his state of mind for this tournament.

Whatever happens with Medvedev, though, it won’t be for the want of trying, as he takes great pride in being a hard court specialist. It sure feels like we’re going to have one hell of a story in the coming days, one way or another.