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Can Denis Shapovalov Reclaim His Promise?

Originally posted on Last Word On Sports
By Jack Beatnik | Last updated Feb 16, 2026 12:43 PM ET

Denis Shapovalov was once tennis’s golden child, especially after stunning Rafael Nadal on home soil in Canada. The hype felt justified. He had the game, the flair, the ceiling. Yet the years since have been marked more by inconsistency than breakthroughs. There were glimpses of greatness, a Wimbledon semifinal run a few years back stands out, but overall, his career has felt like unfulfilled potential.

Lately, though, things have looked different. Much better. At 26, it’s time to revisit Shapovalov and ask whether he’s capable of a second breakout, one that finally returns him to the top 10 where he once was.

The Arc of a Career

Shapovalov’s story began nearly a decade ago. In 2017, as a teenager, he broke into the top 100 and announced himself as a player to watch. He improved steadily each year, peaking in 2020 when he cracked the top 10. The following two years brought stagnation rather than growth, though he remained among the world’s better players.

Then came the decline. A knee injury compounded his struggles, and he tumbled out of the top 100 entirely. Toward the end of 2024, he began clawing his way back. By 2025, he’d stabilized as a top-30 player.

Injuries explained part of the fall, but not all of it. Shapovalov had failed to significantly improve from his earlier baseline. His serve actually regressed slightly as his first-serve percentage dipped, and he won fewer points on first serves. To compensate, he took more risks, which drove up his double fault rate.

The real issue was confidence. Shapovalov’s game works best when he’s aggressive and trusting his shots. At his peak, he overwhelms opponents from the baseline with sheer power and precision. But when doubt creeps in, that same aggression produces unforced errors instead of winners. For a stretch, the errors won out, and his ranking reflected it.

The 2025 Resurgence

Saying Shapovalov played better in 2025 is accurate but incomplete. What matters is understanding what specifically changed in his game.

The return made all the difference. Looking at ATP Tour statistics from the past 52 weeks, Shapovalov ranks as one of the tour’s elite returners. The ATP’s official grading system rates his return at 156.7, actually higher than Novak Djokovic’s 152. Yes, Djokovic’s prime has passed, but the comparison still matters. Shapovalov ranks fifth overall, trailing only Jannik Sinner, Carlos Alcaraz, Alex de Minaur, and Argentinians Francisco Cerundolo and Sebastian Baez. The latter two benefitted from extensive clay-court schedules where returns naturally play up.

For Shapovalov, who played just seven of his 51 matches on clay in 2025, that ranking carries extra weight. He won 38.4% of return points in 2025, nearly three full percentage points higher than his 35.8% mark in 2024. That improvement translated directly into more break point opportunities and more conversions—26% in 2025 compared to just 19% the year before.

That’s a massive boost for a player whose ceiling was always high but whose consistency held him back. If he maintains this level in the coming months, a top-20 ranking looks entirely achievable. Why not higher?

What Comes Next

Shapovalov still has work to do. He struggles in clutch moments, evidenced by his 11-16 tiebreak record in 2025. His first-serve percentage sits at 59%, and it should comfortably be above 60%.

But there are encouraging signs in 2026, even if the sample size remains small. He’s holding serve at a higher rate than last year. He’s winning more points behind his first serve and generally performing better in both first and second-serve situations.

These are marginal improvements, but the kind that compound over time and separate good players from top-10 players. That’s Shapovalov’s blueprint now. If he stays healthy and continues these incremental gains, he’ll find his way back to the top 10.

He was once touted as a future Grand Slam champion. It hasn’t happened yet. But tennis has seen stranger resurrections. Shapovalov is young enough, talented enough, and now seemingly focused enough to make one final push toward fulfilling that promise. The question isn’t whether he has the ability. It’s whether he can sustain the belief long enough to get there.

This article first appeared on Last Word On Sports and was syndicated with permission.

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