Can Jesicca Pegula Break Her Grand Slam Duck?

Jessica Pegula once again showed her level and class as she routinely dispatched Elina Svitolina to win the Dubai Tennis Championships. It was a reminder of just what she’s capable of, but it was also a victory that stirred the pot and raised the question, again, of whether she can win a major. It’s a question that has followed her in the latter part of her career, since she became a player to be reckoned with.

However, years on, we’re still no closer to answering it. There is no doubt that she is one of the best players on the WTA tour and has remained so for several years, but it still feels like she’s not quite in the elite of the elite. Her victory in Dubai means she has now reached at least the semi-finals in her last seven tournaments, a run that includes the US Open and the Australian Open, highlighting her real pedigree.

Can Jessica Pegula win a Major?

A deeper dive into this run shows that her only title triumph in this time is the just-concluded Dubai Tennis Championships. This record raises questions about her ability to cross the line, despite evidently being able to get herself into such positions. It is not a statistic that makes good reading for anyone who argues in her favour.

Another argument levelled against her is that she seems incapable of matching up against the very best players, particularly the power hitters, such as Sabalenka and Rybakina, who, combined, have eliminated her three times in the last seven tournaments. It suggests that while her floor is very high, her ceiling is maybe not quite as high as it needs to be to convert these deep runs into trophies, particularly in the majors.

Critics might even suggest that her victory at the Dubai Tennis Championships was probably down to the top two players, Aryna Sabalenka and Iga Swiatek, skipping the tournament, while Rybakina quit mid-match due to illness against Antonia Ruzic, meaning Pegula didn’t have to face any of them. Believers, though, would argue, citing her comeback victory in the semi-final against Amanda Anisimova -another power hitter, from a set and a break down as evidence of her ability to mix it with anybody as well as raise her game when required.

However, one thing both sides of the divide agree on is that, aged 31, turning 32 in a couple of days, and despite being a late bloomer, she might not have as much time or as many opportunities left to win her maiden Grand Slam. Looking at the positives, both sides recognise her incredible consistency, which is evident in not only her recent results but also in the fact that she has been a mainstay in the top 10 for over three and a half years – a truly impressive feat considering the revolving doors nature of the WTA tour.

She almost always beats players ranked below her. She also possesses an incredible ability to remain calm on court, regardless of the scoreline. It is a trait we have already seen serve another player so well on the WTA tour: Elena Rybakina, who has won two majors. Pegula’s game consists of flat, fast shots, propelled by a compact swing, allowing her to take the ball early with plenty of disguise and, in doing so, take time away from her opponents. These attributes have formed the bedrock of her remarkable consistency.

Following her victory over Svitolina, she also spoke about playing freely, mentally, and trusting what she’s worked on with her coaches. It suggests a willingness to change her mindset, for a player who once described herself as a perfectionist who tends to over-analyse things, a tendency that can sometimes backfire. This new approach might turn out to be what is missing in her pursuit of tennis’s biggest prize, as her game style, as previously mentioned, is almost foolproof.

Her victory in Dubai will no doubt fill her with much-needed confidence that she can go all the way. It was her fourth WTA title and her tenth title overall, which, for many players, represents a respectable career. However, considering her abilities, her remarkable consistency and her expectations of herself, one suspects that she would not be satisfied until she adds at least a Grand Slam to that haul.

Whether she will finally be able to clinch one is difficult to gauge; however, the WTA tour, unlike the ATP tour, is far more unpredictable, even in the majors. One suspects that if she keeps finding herself in the latter stages, it’s only a matter of time before things align for her. Current evidence suggests she is more than ready to accept it.