Jannik Sinner, Alexander Zverev and more at risk of losing big as points to defend pile up

With the US Open now concluded, the ATP season moves into its final stretch, featuring the Asian tour before returning to Europe for the indoor tournaments, the ATP Finals, and the Davis Cup. For many of the men’s tour’s top players, these weeks are as much about defending past achievements as they are about chasing new victories. As the season winds down, ranking points, which determine seeding and qualification for year-end events, take on critical importance, and a handful of players face immense pressure to maintain their positions.

Jannik Sinner's heavy burden

No player has more at stake than Jannik Sinner. The Italian, who recently lost the world number one ranking to Carlos Alcaraz, has 2,830 points to defend over the remaining tournaments, more than anyone else on tour. Sinner’s late-2024 form set the standard: after winning the US Open, he reached the Beijing final, claimed the Shanghai Masters title, then secured the ATP Finals crown and capped the season by lifting the Davis Cup for Italy.

This remarkable run means that Sinner’s autumn calendar is essentially a defensive mission. Failure to replicate his results from last year could see him drop further in the rankings, widening the gap with Alcaraz and putting him at risk of losing momentum heading into 2026. The Italian’s ability to sustain top form across multiple continents and surfaces will be tested like never before.

Advantage Alcaraz?

In contrast, Carlos Alcaraz, now firmly established as world No. 1, faces a far lighter points load. The Spaniard has only 1,000 points to defend, half of which come from his Beijing title. His performances elsewhere last year, including an early exit in Paris and a disappointing group stage result in Turin, mean he carries minimal pressure in those tournaments.

This points advantage allows Alcaraz to focus on consolidating his lead rather than scrambling to defend titles. For him, the remaining events are an opportunity to extend his dominance, widen the margin over Sinner, and further solidify his claim to the year-end No. 1 spot.

Zverev faces crucial tests in Paris and Turin 

Meanwhile, world number three Alexander Zverev faces a significant challenge with 1,730 points to defend. The German, a recent Australian Open finalist, is aiming to maintain his place among the top-ranked players. Many of Zverev’s points stem from last year’s Paris Masters victory and his semifinal appearance at the ATP Finals.

The stakes are particularly high in Paris, where failing to defend his title could dramatically alter his ranking trajectory. Similarly, his performance in Turin will be crucial; a weak showing could see him fall behind other players vying for top-five or top-eight positions. Zverev’s form and consistency will be key, as any slip in these critical weeks could undo months of hard work.

Others potentially in danger

American Taylor Fritz, currently fifth in the world with 4,675 points, has 1,230 points to defend, including a Shanghai semifinal and a runner-up finish at the ATP Finals. While his season has been solid, Fritz is vulnerable; a poor run of results could see him drop out of the top five and lose his number one American spot.

Another player with lots of points to defend is Ugo Humbert, ranked 24th in the world with 2,045 points. The Frenchman reached the Paris-Bercy final last year and also played the Tokyo final, giving him 1,060 points to defend. This means more than half of his current ranking could evaporate if he fails to match those results.

In summation, the coming weeks will be a test of resilience, form, and mental strength. With every match carrying potential implications for the ATP rankings, players will need to navigate this final stretch carefully.