Jannik Sinner Needs Deep Vienna Run to Keep Year-End #1 Dream Alive

Jannik Sinner’s pursuit of the year-end #1 ranking is entering a decisive stretch, and the ATP 500 event in Vienna could prove pivotal. The Italian star, who has enjoyed a sensational 2025 season marked by consistency and major wins, has to make the deepest run, short of winning the title, if he has to stand any chance of usurping his great rival, Carlos Alcaraz, as the World #1 at the end of the season.

Sinner currently trails Alcaraz by 2,540 points in the Live Race, which serves as a barometer for the year-end #1 battle, but with only two major events–Vienna and the Paris Masters–remaining before the ATP Finals, every ranking point carries outsized importance. A strong performance in Austria would preserve his chance to finish the year at the acme of the men’s ranking for the second consecutive season.

The Stakes in Vienna

As one of the final indoor events before the season finale in Turin, Vienna’s fast conditions suit Sinner’s aggressive baseline style. The 24-year-old enters the tournament as the favorite, but the draw is stacked with potential roadblocks, including two former champions: the resurgent Daniil Medvedev, who he defeated to win the title two years ago, and the ever-present Alexander Zverev. There is also the diminutive Australian, Alex de Minaur, who took a set off him in the Beijing semifinal last month.

With Alcaraz taking a week off to focus on Paris and the ATP Finals, Sinner’s best chance to gain ground lies in maximizing his output this week. Winning the Vienna title would deliver 500 points, narrowing the Spaniard’s lead before Paris, which carries a maximum of 1,000 points, and the Nitto ATP Finals, which offers up to 1,500 points.

Should Sinner claim the Vienna title for a second time, he will enter Paris trailing the Spaniard by 2,040 points in the Live Race. Although Alcaraz would still possess a significant lead, a slight amount of pressure could begin to build.

If Sinner does not win any matches in Vienna, he would fall behind by 2,540 points going into the final ATP Masters 1000 event of the season. In that scenario, even if he secures wins in Paris and Turin, Sinner would reach only 11,000 points–compared to Alcaraz’s current total of 11,040. The Italian is not scheduled to compete in Athens or Metz during the week between Paris and Turin.

Both players are aiming for their second ATP Year-End No. 1 finish presented by PIF, with Alcaraz having accomplished this in 2022 and Sinner achieving it last year for the first time in his career. The Italian held the world No. #1 position for 65 consecutive weeks until Alcaraz took over after their US Open showdown.

As the indoor season heats up, the equation for Sinner is straightforward: win big in Vienna, or risk watching his rival Alcaraz clinch another #1 finish.