Jessica Pegula explains why new rule could greatly help Sabalenka vs Nick Kyrgios

Speaking on The Player’s Box Podcast, Pegula highlighted the single-serve rule — both players will get only one serve per point — as a game-changer.

“One serve per player definitely evens it out a lot more,” she said. “Because Nick’s serve is insane.”

Her point is well supported by the numbers. In his last full ATP season in 2022, Kyrgios ranked second in Serve Rating, behind only John Isner, averaging nearly 16 aces per match and winning over 92% of his service games. Removing his second serve eliminates a major cushion in his game and forces him to play every service point with added risk.

Sabalenka, meanwhile, is one of the WTA Tour’s top servers — ranking fourth in service games won in 2025 — but Kyrgios’ serve remains in an entirely different class. Pegula believes this rule moderates that imbalance.

Madison Keys, however, was less convinced, pointing out that Kyrgios regularly “goes for first serves on second serves anyway.” Even so, Pegula stressed that removing his safety net will make a meaningful difference:

“If he had two serves… guys don’t break him. So I would think the two serves are a huge advantage. But if it’s just one, maybe it’s a bit more even.”

Kyrgios’ fitness remains a major unknown ahead of Dubai

While rules may help narrow the gap, Pegula also noted another variable: Kyrgios’ physical condition. The former Wimbledon finalist has played only sporadically this year, with multiple retirements and early losses across singles and doubles. His 2025 results show a player struggling to find rhythm or maintain physical continuity.

Kyrgios did share a surprisingly optimistic update last month, revealing that his problematic knee had shown sudden improvement:

“I don’t know what’s changed with my knee… it’s not swelling, it’s not feeling bad after a session,” he said. “I don’t know whether to call it a miracle, but my knee feels like it’s gotten younger by a couple of years.”

Whether that improvement translates into match-toughness is another question entirely. Sabalenka, the 2025 Australian Open champion, comes into the event with strong form and elite serving numbers of her own, making the duel even more intriguing.

Kyrgios and Sabalenka will face off in Dubai on Sunday, December 28 — and with injuries, rule changes, and expectations all hanging over the match, this year’s Battle of the Sexes promises to be unmissable.