WTA Finals Final Prediction: Aryna Sabalenka vs Elena Rybakina

The WTA Finals final is locked in after a rollercoaster week in Riyadh. Aryna Sabalenka and Elena Rybakina will go head-to-head for the title at the year-end championships, promising fireworks with their massive games. Both have battled through tough groups and semifinals, and this one feels like a true coin flip between two of the hardest hitters on tour. As always, we here at LWOT break it down with our take on who comes out on top.

WTA Finals Final Prediction

Aryna Sabalenka vs Elena Rybakina

Head-to-Head: Sabalenka 8–5 Rybakina

Sabalenka has been a force from the start, powering through the round-robin undefeated with straight-set romps over Jasmine Paolini and Coco Gauff, with Jessica Pegula the only one to push her to a third. She looked vulnerable for a moment in the semifinal against Amanda Anisimova, dropping the second set before punching back with her trademark roar and clutch winners to take it in three. The World No. 1 thrives on hard courts–three of her four Grand Slam titles have come on this surface, and she plays with that fearless aggression that breaks opponents down. Her rhythm and habit of stepping up on the big points have been steadying influences this week. Those traits matter most in a one-off final on a quick hard court.

Rybakina, meanwhile, has turned heads with her serving clinic all week. Her ball-striking has looked excellent at the Finals; she was clinical in the round robin and followed that with a sharp semifinal performance to reach the title match. Her serve and ability to take the ball early make her dangerous on a surface that rewards freewheeling power. She’s found a really good level in Riyadh and has been moving through opponents without surrendering many loose games. If she reproduces the timing and depth she’s shown, she can rush opponents off the court.

Every single one of their thirteen meetings has been on hard courts, so no surprises there–the court speed in Riyadh sits right in the sweet spot for both, quick enough for serves to skid but with enough bounce for groundstroke rallies to explode. Rybakina owned the early matchups, but Sabalenka has flipped the script in the bigger moments lately, using her superior movement and variety to redirect pace and force errors.

This boils down to who handles the pressure of a final better. Sabalenka has been in these spots more often, winning back-to-back Australian Opens and the US Open with that never-back-down mentality. Her return game has sharpened all year, and she’s shown she can weather Rybakina’s bombs when it matters most. Rybakina’s serve will keep her in every set, but Sabalenka’s firepower and big-match experience should carry her over the line in a thriller.
Prediction: Sabalenka in 3