WTA Miami Semifinal Prediction: Aryna Sabalenka vs Elena Rybakina

We are in for a treat in the second semifinal of the WTA 1000 in Miami, as we get another thrilling matchup between Aryna Sabalenka and Elena Rybakina. The pair met less than two weeks ago in the final of Indian Wells, and also less than two months ago in the final of the Australian Open. Rybakina won their first matchup of the year; Sabalenka won the most recent one. But who will take this match? AS always, we share our thoughts. Who do you think will reach the final?

WTA Miami Semifinal Prediction

Two weeks ago, our writers billed this matchup as “the best player in the world vs the World #1.” That is absolutely the correct framing. She’s not dominant in the way that Jannik Sinner or Carlos Alcaraz is on the men’s side, but Rybakina is certainly the best player in the world right now. And Sabalenka is obviously the World #1 right now, and not at all far behind Rybakina.

If both players find their range, this should be an exceptional hard-hitting battle. Rybakina clearly has the better serve, while Sabalenka does a better job redirecting and applying power from the baseline. But both are excellent from everywhere on the court. (Yes, Sabalenka’s serve is no longer a weakness.) It’s a bit frustrating that the draw put these women on the same side of the bracket, because this really deserves to be the final.

Sabalenka has looked more comfortable so far this tournament, while Rybakina has made her way through tougher competition. If I had to pick, I would say that Sabalenka has been playing better overall this event, but throw that all out the window. Rhythm, form, and consistency don’t matter when these two meet. They know each other’s games, they know what it means, and they know they need to bring their best to take out the other. And that’s what they’ll do. All else equal, Rybakina probably has the advantage in this matchup. But the conditions in Miami can be a bit unpredictable, which Sabalenka deals with better. Ultimately, that probably gives her the tiniest of edges.
Prediction: Sabalenka in 3