WTA Race Update: Iga Swiatek closes in on Aryna Sabalenka for year-end No. 1, Paolini's surge puts pressure on Pegula for WTA Finals spot

Some movements were seen in the WTA Race to Riyadh after the Cincinnati Open, which saw Iga Swiatek win her 11th WTA 1000 title and secure her classification for the WTA Finals. The world No. 2 has closed the gap with Aryna Sabalenka and, for the first time this year, threatens her dominance heading into the US Open.

Coco Gauff and Madison Keys remain close to qualification, with a spot practically guaranteed as Grand Slam champions this year (Gauff at Roland Garros and Keys at the Australian Open). Meanwhile, the remaining qualification spots are tightening, especially after the strong campaigns of Jasmine Paolini and Elena Rybakina in Cincinnati.

The battle for the eight qualification spots for the Finals saw some changes, with Jessica Pegula and Amanda Anisimova losing ground but still holding on to qualification positions. However, they need a good campaign at the year's last Grand Slam if they don't want to be displaced from the top 8 in the final part of the year.

Unlike the WTA Ranking, the Race measures points obtained exclusively in the calendar year—starting from the first week of 2025—and will be the indicator used to define the qualifiers for the WTA Finals, as well as the year-end rankings. The WTA Race to Riyadh is entering its final stages, considering that only remain two more WTA 1000 tournaments and one final Grand Slam, the events that distribute the most points.

Swiatek secures WTA Finals spot

Iga Swiatek once again stood out and took home her second title of the season without dropping a set. The Pole added 1,000 points, bringing her dangerously close to Aryna Sabalenka at the top. Sabalenka had already been qualified for the Finals for several weeks and now has 7,610 points after falling in the Cincinnati semifinals. Swiatek (7,110) joined her as the second qualifier with her new title, guaranteeing her spot in the Finals and putting her only 500 points behind Sabalenka. While the differences in the ranking are more than 3,000 points, as the weeks pass—and especially after the US Open ends—the six-time Grand Slam champion is starting to see her chances of reclaiming the world No. 1 spot.

The Pole will arrive at Flushing Meadows with great confidence, having won 14 of her last 15 matches. If she wins the title, she will surpass Sabalenka in the Race (which could also happen if she reaches the semifinals or final and Sabalenka has an early exit from the tournament).

Andreeva loses ground as Gauff and Keys maintain virtual qualification spots

The WTA Finals qualification cutoff is currently at 6,265 points for mathematical qualification. However, two players can be considered 'virtually qualified'. This refers to Coco Gauff (4,944) and Madison Keys (4,440), since as Grand Slam champions, they only need to finish the year within the top 20 to earn their spot in the Finals.

Both Americans have remained in the top 4 invariably throughout the season, although their campaigns at the US Open will be vital, as they could fall in position, considering Mirra Andreeva (4,059) is close behind. The Russian teenager missed Cincinnati but maintains a comfortable position in the top 5, especially thanks to her two consecutive WTA 1000 titles won at the Dubai Duty Free Tennis Championships and Indian Wells.

While Gauff and Keys have their spots in the Finals practically secured, Andreeva saw her absence from Cincinnati mean that she lost a part of the wide gap she had over her pursuers. The Russian was injured and must start winning again if she doesn't want to jeopardize her potential qualification for Riyadh.

A tight battle for Riyadh: Paolini and Rybakina close in on Pegula and Anisimova

Everything has tightened up beyond the top 5, with four players closely fighting for the last three qualification spots for the Finals. Amanda Anisimova (3,608) remains in 6th place, although her third-round exit in Cincinnati did not allow her to add many points, and she saw some of her pursuers dangerously close in.

One of them is Elena Rybakina (3,511, 7th place), who reached the semifinals only to fall to eventual champion Swiatek. The Kazakh has now reached three consecutive semifinals (D.C. Open, Canadian Open, Cincinnati), which has allowed her to move up and enter the qualification zone in recent weeks.

Eighth place currently belongs to Jessica Pegula (3,430, 8th place), who would be qualified for Riyadh if the season ended today. The 31-year-old American was displaced by Rybakina after being eliminated in the third round of Cincinnati. However, her position is in doubt, as she has a difference of only 34 points from Jasmine Paolini (3,396, 9th place).

The Italian had a remarkable campaign in Cincinnati, reaching the final—her third final in a WTA 1000—although this time she couldn't secure the title after falling to Swiatek in straight sets. Until recently, it seemed she was far from getting a spot in the Finals, but now it will come down to a matter of details for her to pass Pegula. Advancing just one more round than the American would allow her to take 8th place and leave Pegula—at least momentarily—out of the qualification zone.