3 WNBA Overreactions Already Emerging After Opening Weekend

3 WNBA Overreactions From Opening Weekend

1. The Indiana Fever's Brutal Defense vs. Wings

The Indiana Fever lost their first game of the 2026 season after a 107-104 defeat at home against the Dallas Wings. This was the most total points scored in a season-opener in league history, and made for a fun offensive display from both teams.

But it was not the defensive effort that either coaching staff had hoped for, especially for the Fever, given that they lost. And while this was a bad start for Indiana's defense, it likely isn't a preview of what's to come for several reasons.

One reason is that the scoring league-wide was up over the weekend. ESPN revealed in a May 11 X post that teams are averaging 87.4 PPG to this point, which "is the highest average scoring output in the first two days of a regular season in league history".

Defenses across the league will likely improve once systems are more in place, players acclimate to how referees are calling games (the Fever committed 25 fouls while the Wings committed 28), and new groups become more comfortable playing with each other.

The Wings shot 59% from the field and 52% from three-point range. While much of this was owed to Indiana leaving them wide open at times, that's still an exceptional (and unsustainable) percentage.

Plus, one must look at who was on the court for Indiana. Lexie Hull (the Fever's best perimeter defender) was on a minutes restriction because of a hamstring injury, Aliyah Boston (perhaps their best defender overall) only played 26 minutes as she is being eased back into action after an offseason injury, and Monique Billings, who is an above-average defender who has versatility and size, was sidelined with an ankle issue.

All of these factors suggest that while the Fever's defense likely won't be great this season. But it won't be as bad as it was against Dallas.

2. UCLA Rookies Struggling (Aside From Gabriela Jaquez)

The defending national champion UCLA Bruins had six players selected in the 2026 WNBA Draft: Lauren Betts (No. 4 overall), Gabriela Jaquez (No. 5 overall), Kiki Rice (No. 6 overall), Angela Dugalić (No. 9 overall), Gianna Kneepkens (No. 15 overall), and Charlisse Leger-Walker (No. 18 overall).

Out of six, five struggled to make much of an impact during opening weekend. The one who didn't was Jaquez, who scored 10 points and added 7 rebounds, 2 assists, and 2 steals for the Chicago Sky, who beat the Portland Fire 98-83 in their first game.

Aside from Jaquez, these Bruins rookies struggled. Both Betts and Dugalić are averaging 3.5 points per game across two contests with the Mystics. Rice didn't score a single point in 18 minutes in her first game with the Toronto Tempo. Leger-Walker is averaging 5 points per game, and Kneepkens is averaging 4.5 points per game (both of whom are playing for the Connecticut Sun.

While this is not the start that UCLA head coach Cori Close likely wanted from her former players, these rookies are too talented not to be more impactful, especially Rice and Betts, who should be able to assume a prominent role for their respective teams.

UCLA's rookie class didn't have the opening weekend they were hoping for. But expecting it to remain this way would be an overreaction.

3. The Golden State Valkyries' Hot Start

There's a lot of interest around how the Golden State Valkyries will fare in their second WNBA season after shocking the league and advancing to the playoffs last year, despite it being their first as an expansion franchise.

While some of their recent personnel decisions have raised eyebrows, this hasn't impacted them on the court, as Golden State is off to a solid 2-0 start.

That being said, context is important when assessing these wins. One game against the Seattle Storm and the other game against the Phoenix Mercury, both of whom have depleted rosters from a season ago and aren't likely to be among the league's better teams.

Therefore, it's probably too early to assume that this 2-0 start means Golden State is one of the league's top teams. The Valkyries' next three games are against the Chicago Sky (May 13), the New York Liberty (May 21), and the Indiana Fever (May 22), all of whom should be playoff teams this year.

Golden State's ceiling should be clearer by the end of this month. But calling them a championship contender after opening weekend would be premature.