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Does Napheesa Collier’s Injury Impact Her MVP Chances?

Originally posted on The Lead | By John Pilato | Last updated Aug 15, 2025 3:28 PM ET

Minnesota Lynx star forward Napheesa Collier suffered a right ankle sprain in a game against the Las Vegas Aces on Saturday, Aug. 2. She will be evaluated in the coming days, but is likely to miss a minimum of two weeks.

The reigning Defensive Player of the Year winner was playing arguably the best basketball of her career this season, averaging over 23 points, seven rebounds and three assists, as well as nearly two steals per game. Collier was the MVP favorite prior to her injury, with -300 odds according to the WNBA’s website.

Team Strengths

If Collier can return early, her chances of winning the award are still likely, thanks to her stats and the Lynx’s league-best 27-5 record. Though she is the team’s best player, a lot of their success is due to their depth and elite role players, such as Alanna Smith, Kayla McBride and Courtney Williams.

One area where the Lynx excel, with or without Collier, is their defense. Five of their routine starters rank in the top 20 for defensive win shares, a statistic that shows how valuable a player’s defense is to their team’s success.

The Lynx also have amazing team chemistry, with nearly all their impact players having played two or more years in Minnesota. Even those who haven’t played in Minnesota for long, such as Williams and new addition Natisha Hiedeman, have begun to build great chemistry through their increasingly popular Twitch account “Stud Budz”.

Sports fans like to joke that teams can win games thanks to the “Power of Friendship,” a phrase prevalent in sports circles. However, the Lynx truly seem to have that power. They are a group that genuinely enjoys playing alongside each other, which should be attributed to team chemistry and coach Cheryl Reeve.

Players Who Must Step Up

On Feb. 1, the Lynx and Dallas Wings finalized a deal that sent 2024 Most Improved Player and All-Defensive First Team selection Dijonai Carrington to Minnesota.

OFFICIAL: The Dallas Wings have traded guard DiJonai Carrington to the Minnesota Lynx in exchange for Diamond Miller, Karlie Samuelson and Minnesota's 2027 second round pick. pic.twitter.com/7jxBKLymhr

— Dallas Wings (@DallasWings) August 3, 2025

Carrington struggled in Dallas this season due to Arike Ogunbowale and rookie Paige Bueckers holding starting guard spots. Since the trade, however, Carrington has been one of the Lynx’s best players, scoring in double figures in all three games.

DiJonai Carrington’s first three games with the Lynx:

15 PTS, 6 REB, 3 AST, 2 STL, 6-10 FG
12 PTS, 2 REB, 2 STL, 1 BLK, 4-7 FG
13 PTS, 4 REB, 2 AST, 2 STL, 5-7 FG

— Underdog WNBA (@UnderdogWNBA) August 10, 2025

Her scoring ability and high-level defense off the bench will be crucial for the Lynx during the end of the regular season and as the playoffs approach. By season’s end, this deal may be one of the most impactful of the season.

Smith, who serves as the de facto center alongside Jessica Shepard, has been one of the Lynx’s most consistent players this season. She averages nearly 10 points and over five rebounds a game while playing good defense, evidenced by her All-Defensive Second Team selection last season. In Collier’s absence, Smith scored 25 points in the Lynx’s 80-76 win over the Washington Mystics. She will be one of the team’s most important players during this late-season stretch.

At this point in her career, teams know what they get with “Court” Williams. The nine-year veteran has been one of the W’s most consistent stars. The flashy guard can provide double-digit points and half-a-dozen assists every game, numbers which will be crucial in Collier’s absence.

Teams also know what to expect from McBride. The 33-year-old guard has been one of the league’s best three-point threats throughout her career, even having shot over 40% from three last season. Her long-range ability will also prove important for Minnesota down the stretch.

Though Carlton and Shepard are not stars, both are valuable role players who provide occasional scoring and elite defense, as shown by their aforementioned top 20 placement in defensive win shares.

How Collier’s Injury Affects the Team

Any team losing its best players hurts, especially one that was on track to win MVP and potentially Defensive Player of the Year, but if there is one team that will be unaffected, it is the Lynx. Their strengths as a team, including their depth and defense, lend themselves to winning basketball.

In three games without Collier since the injury, the Lynx are 3-0, having beaten the Storm, Mystics and Liberty. If the above players step up in her place, the Lynx can enter the playoffs as the No. 1 seed and the title favorites, looking to redeem themselves after last season’s finals loss to the Liberty.

This article first appeared on The Lead and was syndicated with permission.

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