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ESPN’s Computer Model Names Indiana Fever as Favorites to Reach WNBA Finals

Originally posted on Athlon Sports | By Rodney Knuppel | Last updated Sep 22, 2025 10:24 AM ET

When the Indiana Fever and Las Vegas Aces meet for Game 2 of their best-of-five series on Tuesday, the Fever will hold a 1-0 lead. Indiana came out strong in the opener, building a 69-55 advantage after three quarters.

The Fever closed things out with a 20-18 edge in the fourth to secure an 89-73 victory. Kelsey Mitchell was outstanding once again, shooting 12-of-23 from the field and leading all scorers with 34 points.

What makes Indiana’s run even more impressive is that they are doing it without several key players, including star Caitlin Clark, Aari McDonald, and Sophie Cunningham.

Ahead of Game 2, ESPN released its updated computer models with the 2025 Playoffs WNBA Power Index. The numbers now favor the Fever to win the series against the Aces and advance to the WNBA Finals.

The Fever are now given a 62.5% chance to reach the WNBA Finals and an 11% chance to win the championship, the second-highest mark in the league behind the Minnesota Lynx. Minnesota currently leads its best-of-five series against the Phoenix Mercury 1-0.

These updated odds mark a significant shift from what ESPN posted before Game 1 on Sunday. At that time, Indiana had just a 36.1% chance of advancing to the Finals and a 6.8% chance of winning the title. Their dominant road victory in Game 1 was enough to boost those projections in a big way.

ESPN gives the Fever a 36.1% chance of making the finals and a 6.8% chance of winning it all. https://t.co/5Nrb7u8PqI pic.twitter.com/G90l0sYlgU
— Stavros (@StavrosForever) September 21, 2025

Indiana entered the season with high expectations under new head coach Stephanie White. With Caitlin Clark in her second year and the addition of Sophie Cunningham, many believed the Fever had the pieces to be a legitimate title contender.

The regular season, however, proved to be a rollercoaster. Indiana finished 24-20 but closed strong by winning their final three games to lock up the No. 6 seed. In the opening round against the Atlanta Dream, the Fever dropped Game 1 before bouncing back with a dominant 77-60 win in Game 2 and an 87-75 victory in the decisive Game 3.

Mitchell has been tremendous in the postseason with 27, 19, 24, and 34 points in the four games. She led the regular season with 20.2 points per game. Aliyah Boston was strong as well, with 15 points and 8.2 rebounds per game.

This article first appeared on Athlon Sports and was syndicated with permission.

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