Fever's WNBA Playoff Fate vs Dream Could Come Down to This Key Battle

Media pundits heavily favor the Dream, and for good reason. Behind All-Stars Rhyne Howard, Allisha Gray, and Brionna Jones, Atlanta is one of only two WNBA teams to rank top-three in both offensive and defensive rating, alongside the 34-win Lynx.

If Indiana wishes to silence the doubters, they'll need to win a very competitive battle inside the paint.

Fever Must Win Paint Battle to Advance Past Atlanta Dream

This Fever squad has been rightfully lauded for its resilience. Despite five season-ending injuries -- Clark chief among them -- Indiana clinched a playoff berth and the No. 6 seed, closing the regular season on a three-game winning streak.

That grit has seeped its way onto the court. The Fever lead the WNBA in second-chance points and make their living down low. Nearly half of their scoring -- 47.5% -- comes in the paint, third-most in the league.

The Dream present a natural foil. Atlanta capitalized on the expanded schedule, setting new single-season records for total and defensive rebounds. There isn't a better team when it comes to denying second-chance opportunities, as evidenced by a league-leading 73.7% defensive rebound rate.

Atlanta is middle of the pack in terms of rim protection, but the Fever will face some challenges inside. 6-foot-9 center Brittney Griner and 6-foot-3 forward Brionna Jones anchor an imposing frontcourt, giving the Dream a prominent size advantage in the paint.

And with Fever forward Damiris Dantas sidelined for Game 1, the mismatch down low will be even more of a factor.

Yet it's the Dream's perimeter defense that could give Indiana the most trouble. Jordin Canada and Howard rank first and third league-wide in Defensive Win Shares. Gray isn't far behind either, slotting in fifth-best amongst guards.

Simply getting to the lane will be no easy task, something Indiana learned firsthand in the regular season.

In a 17-point win on June 10, Atlanta held the Fever to 58 points and just eight field goals inside five feet -- both season lows. It was a dominant showing for the Dream inside, outscoring Indiana 46-28 in the paint and winning the glass 44-27.

The Fever tallied at least 40 points in the paint in the other three regular-season meetings, going 2-1 with the lone loss a narrow 91-90 defeat. It's a good recipe if Indiana wants to keep these games close at hand.

The elephant in the room is that Clark was active for all four tilts with Atlanta. Without her, the floor shrinks considerably. Still, Indiana has proven this offense is more than just a one-woman show. There's an avenue to clear success, especially if Kelsey Mitchell and Aliyah Boston are in prime form.