Mystics' Sonia Citron Closing Gap on Paige Bueckers for WNBA Rookie of the Year Award

Bueckers has more than lived up to the hype after being selected No. 1 overall in the 2025 WNBA Draft, and remains the consensus favorite to take home the award. Nevertheless, with the end of the regular season in sight, Citron has narrowed the once-massive gap.

Sonia Citron Making Some Noise in Rookie of the Year Talks

Citron earned a nod to the 2025 All-Star games, joining Iriafen and Bueckers as the only three rookies represented. Still, it was Bueckers who headed the pack as one of four guards named an All-Star starter amidst a meteoric kickstart to her young WNBA career.

Quickly establishing herself as Dallas' leading scorer and one of the best all-around guards in the league, it seemed a fait accompli that Bueckers would take home the Rookie of the Year trophy, even as early as a month into the season.

While she remains poised to take home the hardware, it's no longer the landslide it was shaping up to be, thanks to a strong second-half surge from Citron.

In her last eight games, Citron is averaging 17.6 PPG, shooting a blistering 53.8% from the field and 46.7% from three-point land in a stretch dating back to July 26.

It hasn't been enough to overtake Bueckers in any of the counting stats, but it has firmly thrust Citron into the Rookie of the Year race.

While Bueckers maintains an advantage in PPG, AST, and STL, Citron has the edge in efficiency, sporting a 47.1 FG% and 38.8 3P%.

Delving deeper, there are less traditional stats that add a bit more luster to Citron's profile.

Citron has been magnificent in clutch situations, which the WNBA defines as the final five minutes of the fourth quarter (plus overtime) when the scoring margin is within five points. The Mystics' rookie leads all rookies with 41 clutch points -- no other first-year player has more than 30.

Granted, it's tricky comparing total stats when Bueckers has missed seven games this season. At a per-game rate, Citron and Bueckers are neck and neck with 2.3 clutch points. However, Citron boasts a 47.8 FG% and 50.0 3P% in clutch situations, in contrast to Bueckers' 29.6 FG% and 16.7 3P%.

Supporters of Citron also point to the respective win-loss records of the Mystics and Wings.

While neither squad currently holds a playoff spot, Washington trails the 8-seeded Seattle Storm by 1.5 games, snapping a 4-game skid with Sunday's win. The Wings, meanwhile, are losers of five straight and sit second-to-last in the WNBA with an 8-24 record.

Admittedly, team success is not a factor that I think deserves much consideration in this discussion. Rookie of the Year is an individual award first and foremost, with the objective being to highlight the league's most impressive first-year player.

Bueckers has been the most dominant rookie, and if the season were to end today, she'd be most deserving of the award.

Plus, Bueckers and Citron are in two vastly different situations. While Citron has enjoyed markedly better success from a team standpoint, she's also benefited from playing alongside a pair of 2025 All-Stars -- Iriafen and Brittney Sykes, the latter of whom was shipped to Seattle for Alysha Clark at the trade deadline.

Although Dallas has some talent on paper, Bueckers was their lone representative at the All-Star game, a bright spot on a frustrating squad that's struggled mightily to mesh together.

Make no mistake, Citron is in the midst of a stellar rookie campaign and has undoubtedly forced her way into the Rookie of the Year conversation. But if she truly wants to challenge Bueckers for the right to the award, she's still got some ground to make up.

Leaguewide, Bueckers ranks 7th in scoring, 9th in assists, and 4th in steals -- the only rookie to rank Top 10 in all three statistical categories. Her 18.5 PPG puts her safely ahead of Citron's 14.8, and her 5.3 AST nearly doubles any other player in the rookie class.

Not to mention, Bueckers has managed to reach double figures in each of her first 25 games, boasting the longest active streak in the league.

Should she maintain that pace for her final 12 games, she'd join a short list of WNBA players who recorded 10+ points in every game of their rookie campaign, one that includes Hall of Famer Cynthia Cooper and 3-time MVP A'ja Wilson.

It's a lofty task for Citron, but given her recent play, not one that exceeds her capabilities. The odds favor Bueckers, but this Rookie of the Year race could get exciting in the final month of the regular season.