WNBA best bets: Spread picks, player prop, prediction, odds for Thu. 6/13

Storm vs. Wings

Thursday, June 13, 7 p.m. ET, ESPN
Arike Ogunbowale Under 5.5 Assists (+112, FanDuel)

By Jim Turvey

The Dallas Wings play host to the Seattle Storm on Thursday, and I'll be looking to the under for a player who posted 10 assists her last time out.

Arike has indeed seen a bump in her passing numbers this season, and while I believe it to be somewhat sustainable with the roster as it currently stands, Thursday night is a bad matchup for her in this sense.

For one, the Storm are a very strong defense, the third-best defensive net rating team, and a team that gives up the third-fewest assists to opponents league-wide.

There's also the career-long trend of Arike passing more when she's on the road. For her career, she averages 4.1 assists on the road compared to 3.5 per game at home.

Add in the fact that she has talked about how her and Jewell Loyd (her fellow Notre Dame alum and direct opponent tonight) love to go back and forth giving each other buckets. They are two of the most skilled guards in the league, so it should make for great TV, but it should also help our assists under here.

I would play this to under 5.5 (-125), where we are getting plus money right now!

Pick: Arike Ogunbowale Under 5.5 Assists (+112)

Dream vs. Fever

Thursday, June 13, 7 p.m. ET, ESPN3
Dream 1H -1.5 (-105, DraftKings)

By Dano Mataya

Thanks to Tanisha Wright and the Atlanta Dream, we no longer have a winless team in the WNBA following the Mystics domination of the Dream in Atlanta.

It wasn’t close from the jump. For some reason at home, the Dream have been the worst first-half team in the league. They have a net rating in the first half home games of -16.7. Yet, in the first half of road of road games, they have a net rating of +8.2.

Coming off an embarrassing loss, plus the juice of playing Caitlin, I expect them to come out strong in the first half of Thursday's contest. Play to -3.

Pick: Dream -1.5 (-105) – First Half Spread

Aces vs. Mercury

Thursday, June 13, 10 p.m. ET, Prime Video
Aces -5.5 (-110, Bet365)

By Stephen Nover

Missing injured star Chelsea Gray, the Aces have lost three straight games for the first time under Becky Hammon, who has been Las Vegas' head coach the past three seasons. 

Clearly, the Aces are in stop-the-pain mode. Hammon is the best coach in the WNBA in my view. I'm confident she'll have the Aces ready for this matchup. I don't see them losing for a fourth consecutive time. 

Phoenix has upgraded its roster and coaching staff from last year's 9-31 disaster. The Mercury are improved. But they are far from elite. They are what their 6-6 record says they are: a .500 team. 

The Aces are dropping down in class after losing, 100-86, to Minnesota at home this past Tuesday. The Lynx are one of the top-three teams in the league right now. 

Even without Gray, the Aces still are the No. 3 scoring team in the WNBA and second-best free throw shooting team. A'Ja Wilson is the most dominant player in the league. Wilson, Kelsey Plum and Jackie Young give the Aces the three best players on the court. 

The Aces have gotten a boost from rookie spark plug Kate Martin and veteran Tiffany Hayes, who came out of retirement to join the Aces and is getting more comfortable with each game. She still brings something. 

Phoenix has gunners in Kahleah Cooper and ageless Diana Taurasi. But the Mercury ranks third-from-last defensively. The Aces are going to get their points here.

The key question is, can the Aces' defense be good enough for them to cover this mid-range number? I'm betting it will be, especially after Hammon expressed her extreme unhappiness following the loss to Minnesota.

Pick: Aces -5.5 (-110)