WNBA Finals Preview, Prediction: Aces vs. Mercury

Backcourt

At 92.2, the Mercury boast the top defensive rating in the playoffs, and they also hold opponents to the fewest points per game (75.9). The catalysts are starting guards Kahleah Copper and Monique Akoa Makani. Mercury coach Nate Tibbetts has described Akoa Makani as the best pick-and-roll defender in the league. The rookie guard from Cameroon can fight through screens, stay attached to ball handlers, and pressure them. The help defenders sharing the court with her can stick closer to their assignments without worrying about blown rotations and the temptation to overhelp.

Copper is also known for effectively navigating screens and has the agility to keep up with ball handlers on the perimeter. Her agility and athleticism are also present on offense with her drives to the basket.

The Aces’ duo of Chelsea Gray and Jackie Young is just as formidable. Young is a multipurpose guard who can give the team what it needs at any given time, and Gray is a pure point guard who can facilitate and create opportunities for herself and others. While Wilson carries the bulk of the offensive load for the Aces, the duo of Gray and Young can provide auxiliary scoring as well as lockdown defense. Jewell Loyd and Dana Evans are two more guards who can bring offensive firepower and the ability to defend.

The guard play of both teams will decide this series. For the Aces to win, their backcourt will have to figure out how to navigate the defense of Copper and Akoa Makani. For the Mercury, it’s about outscoring a duo of great defenders in their own right in Young and Gray.

Frontcourt

Wilson is, without question, the best player in the series. Averaging 26 points, 9.1 rebounds, three assists, 2.6 steals, and 2.8 blocks this postseason, Wilson will maintain her dominance in this series. She is a capable scorer in the post and on the perimeter, and stopping her will be a tough task. Expect Tibbetts to throw multiple bodies at Wilson to try and slow her down. While Wilson will garner most of the attention, look for NaLyssa Smith to impact the series as well with her auxiliary rebounding at 4.6 per game in the postseason. The opportunity is there for her to score second-chance points and get some easy looks while Wilson commands most of the attention.

The Mercury has the second-best player in the series in Thomas. The MVP candidate is dangerous as a playmaker. It’s why the Mercury were 8-1 this season when she records a triple-double. Her 20-point, 11-rebound, and 11-assist performance helped eliminate the defending-champion Liberty in the first round. Satou Sabally is a versatile and long defender who can also score from deep. At 6-foot-4, Sabally can use her considerable size advantage over the Aces’ backcourt offensively and help contain Wilson in the post. Although many eyes will be on Wilson and Thomas in this series, Sabally will be the X-factor for Phoenix.

2025 WNBA Finals schedule

• Friday: Phoenix at Las Vegas, 8 p.m. ET, ESPN
• Sunday: Phoenix at Las Vegas, 3 p.m. ET, ABC
• Wednesday: Las Vegas at Phoenix, 8 p.m. ET, ESPN
• Friday, Oct. 10: Las Vegas at Phoenix, 8 p.m. ET, ESPN
• Sunday, Oct. 12 (if necessary): Phoenix at Las Vegas, 3 p.m. ET, ABC
• Wednesday, Oct. 15 (if necessary): Las Vegas at Phoenix, 8 p.m. ET, ESPN
• Friday, Oct. 17 (if necessary): Phoenix at Las Vegas, 8 p.m. ET, ESPN

Strategy and prediction

As expected, the Mercury will lean on their defense in this series. They will attempt to slow Wilson down, deploying multiple defenders at her. However, I believe Sabally will be the primary defender due to her length and size. Also, look for the Mercury to force Wilson into shots outside the paint.

Although Wilson can score from anywhere, she is more efficient in the post and around the rim. During the regular season, she shot 45% on midrange shots, in contrast to 70% in the restricted area.

The Mercury can win this series by turning defense into offense by scoring buckets in transition. Offensively, expect Thomas to get her teammates involved early to establish herself as a playmaker. For Las Vegas, expect the Aces to force Thomas to be a volume scorer while taking the rest of the Mercury out of their offensive flow.

Also for Vegas, Young, Gray, and others must capitalize on the scoring opportunities that Wilson creates. The best way to do that is through well-timed cuts and ball movement.

The Aces’ biggest weakness is their defensive lapses. Their play in the clutch against the Storm and Fever was enough. However, I'm picking the Mercury because they are more equipped to take advantage of those lapses and put the clamps on Vegas.

Pick: Mercury in seven.