AEW Continental Classic Week 3 Recap and Week 4 Preview

MVP of the Week 

Is there any other answer than “Speedball” Mike Bailey? Bailey not only had the week of the tournament, but also, possibly, the week of his career. On Dynamite’s Winter is Coming, Speedball went toe-to-toe and beat one of the best wrestlers in the world, and on Saturday’s Collision: Winter is Coming, he beat his extremely talented tag-team partner, Kevin Knight. With those two wins last week, Speedball has changed the perception of him being the “pin guy” of the group to a viable winner of it.

With those two results, Bailey has positioned himself at the top of the Gold League table, in a three-way tie with Kazuchika Okada and Kyle Fletcher himself. Speedball still has work to do if he wants to advance. He still has Okada and a very hungry Jack Perry to face off against. While in a great position, if he wants to make it out of the group, Bailey will NEED at least one of his next two tournament matches. 

Results

Dynamite

Gold: Kazuchika Okada (6) defeats Jack Perry (0)

Gold: Mike Bailey (3) defeats Kyle Fletcher (6)

Collision

Blue: Claudio Castagnoli (7) vs Konosuke Takeshita (7)– Draw

Gold: Mike Bailey (6) defeats Kevin Knight (3)

What Do the Results Mean for Week 4 of the AEW Continental Classic?

Gold League

The Gold League has turned into the more tightly contested of the two leagues, as there is a three-way tie for first place between Kazuchika Okada, Speedball Mike Bailey, and Kyle Fletcher. None of them is allowed a letdown in their remaining two matches. The most meaningful match left in this league is Okada vs Speedball. The winner from that will more than likely reach the semifinals.

There is still a chance for Kevin Knight, Pac, and Jack Perry to make some noise in this tournament. That is why the Gold is the more intriguing of the two leagues. As unpredictable as this tournament has been thus far, it is still possible for anyone to make the semifinals. Perry is still going to play spoiler somewhere. He still has a match against Bailey, Fletcher, and Pac. It’s hard to imagine that the newly invigorated Perry goes winless in the league. Tony Khan could also be making a late run for Perry.

Jack Perry is still the only wrestler with three matches left, with nothing scheduled for this week. He could make a triumphant and rapid movement to the top of the table. That would be a hell of a storyline. 

Blue League

Unlike the Gold League, Konosuke Takeshita and Claudio Catagnoli are running away with the Blue League. Unless something drastic happens between now and next week, it will likely be the two lieutenants from the two premier heel stables to advance to the semis. While there is still a mathematical chance for anyone to make it out, the story is clearly leaning towards what we have now. The two tournament stories are going to converge here. The Death Riders’ change of guard and Don Callis’ Family civil war will go through the Blue League.

The best story left in the Blue League is: Will the Death Riders turn on Jon Moxley for underperforming in the CC or at World’s End? To get there, Moxley will need to get upset, and Roderick Strong is the perfect opponent for that.

Mascara Dorada and Orange Cassidy will be an interesting match to keep an eye on. The winner will be positioned to play spoiler for the rest of the tournament. If Mascara Dorada wins, he will have 6 points and a match against Roddy Strong. Could that be what turns the Blue League on its head? If OC wins, he will end Moxley’s tournament.  

If the AEW Continental Classic Ended Today, Who Would Fight at World’s End?

Gold League No. 1 Mike Bailey vs Blue League No. 2 Claudio Castagnoli

Blue League No. 1 Konozuke Takeshita vs Gold League No. 2 Kyle Fletcher

The only significant change is that Mike Bailey has now taken over the top of the Gold League. The first tie-breaker in the tournament is head-to-head matchups. Bailey has a win over Fletcher, and he has a win over Okada. That keeps Okada OUT of the semifinals if the semifinals were to start today. Fortunately for the Rainmaker, they don’t. Okada still has a matchup against Bailey and can make up the ground to get back in the semifinals. 

Predictions for Week 4

Gold League: Pac (3 points)  vs Kyle Fletcher (6 points)

Fletcher is coming off a devastating loss against Speedball Mike Bailey–in the TV match of the year– and is now looking to regain the lead in the Gold League. It won’t be easy, as Pac is also looking to get back in the win column after dropping a match against Kazuchika Okada. Something to keep in mind: Pac beat Bailey. Fletcher did not. As unpredictable as this tournament has been, it’s not far-fetched to think that an upset can happen here.

I don’t think Fletcher drops another match. While Pac winning would bring intrigue to the Death Rider storyline, Fletcher losing two in a row would be devastating to his rising start. Expect Fletcher to win a barn burner against the Bastard.

Winner: Kyle Fletcher

Blue League: Jon Moxley (3 points) vs Roderick Strong (0 points)

Jon Moxley’s back is against the wall, and he knows it. This could be the Death Rider leader’s Waterloo moment. He has lost two consecutive matches (Claudio Castegnoli and Konosuke Takeshita), and a third would all but end his tournament. A win over Roderick Strong would get him to six points and right back into the conversation to advance. 

It would be disheartening if Strong doesn’t get a win during the Continental Classic. While we all know that Strong isn’t positioned on the card to win, going out winless would be a shame. So it makes total sense if Strong pulls off the “upset on Wednesday.” That could mark the point of no return for Moxley. If not, Strong’s only possible shot at a win looks to be against Mascara Dorada. However, luckily for Strong, he gets his win and gets revenge for his buddy, Kyle O’Reilly. 

Winner: Roderick Strong 

Blue League: Mascara Dorada (3 points) vs Orange Cassidy (3 points)

Mascara Dorada and Orange Cassidy are on the verge of elimination in the Continental Classic with a loss. A loss virtually signals the end of a dream. When looked at it through that prism, it looks like Orange Cassidy will be the one who will get the win and keep his hopes alive. Mascara Dorada had the upset of the tournament–before Bailey beat Fletcher– and that should build some momentum for the future. 

A tie could be an option if AEW really wants to protect the Luchador, but they should not be using the “draw” card too often. Especially not if they just used it on Saturday at Collision. OC should win a very hotly contested match. 

Winner: Orange Cassidy

Who Wins Now?

Who knows at this point? This is as wide open as the tournament has been. However, I’m still sticking with my original prediction of Konosuke Takeshita to win the whole thing. As the IWGP Heavyweight Champion, he has the leg up to win the tournament. He will beat Kyle Fletcher, his Don Callis Family stablemate. The match they will put together will be one of the matches of the year. 

Winner of the Continental Classic: Konosuke Takeshita