Houston Cougars head coach Willie Fritz reacts after a play during the second quarter against the Utah Utes Troy Taormina-Imagn Images

Houston Cougars Listed as 'Sleeper' Team by ESPN

Originally posted on Houston Cougars on SI
By Diego Saenz | Last updated Aug 17, 2025 7:03 PM ET

With college football just two weeks away, the annual debate over who will hoist the trophy in January is already buzzing. As always, the Georgias, Clemsons, and Ohio States of the world headline just about every preseason projection.

But there’s one conference noticeably absent from the title conversation: the Big 12. While it may lack a clear-cut national contender, the league is expected to deliver some of the most entertaining, unpredictable football in the country this fall.

And sitting squarely in the middle of that conversation are the Houston Cougars, a program many aren’t even aware of, yet one ESPN recently tagged as a “sleeper” in its FBS tiers.

History Could Repeat Itself

Will Houston make a run at the national championship? Probably not. But can the Cougars contend in the Big 12? That’s a much more realistic conversation.

Let’s rewind to last season. Arizona State entered its first year in the new 16-team Big 12 picked dead last by the media and projected to win just 4.5 games by oddsmakers.

Sound familiar? According to FanDuel, Houston starts this year as the second-biggest longshot to win the conference at +5000 odds, with a projected 3–6 league record. ESPN’s latest SP+ rankings were even harsher, placing the Cougars dead last in the Big 12.

But here’s one thing most people are overlooking: Willie Fritz thrives in year two.

Across Fritz’s five previous head-coaching stops at Blinn, Central Missouri, Sam Houston State, Georgia Southern, and Tulane, his combined first-year record was 30-25-1. In year two, that record skyrocketed to 44-17.

And the pieces are in place for this trend to continue in H-Town. The biggest reason: quarterback Conner Weigman.

The former Texas A&M five-star was once viewed as a potential first-round pick before injuries and inconsistency derailed his 2024 season. Now he gets a fresh start under Fritz and a rebuilt roster.

That rebuild began in the portal. Fritz landed 21 new additions, including three offensive linemen to prioritize Weigman’s protection. At the skill positions, Houston added Ball State tight end Tanner Koziol, who posted 94 catches for 839 yards and eight touchdowns, as well as UAB wideout Amare Thomas, who put up 670 yards and eight scores on 62 receptions last year.

The focus on offense was much needed after last season’s group finished dead last in the conference at just 14 points per game. The defense, on the other hand, held its own, ranking fourth in the Big 12 in total defense.

Put it all together, and Houston has the makings of a sleeper team: a proven year-two coach, a high-ceiling quarterback, an upgraded offense, and a solid defense. Come December, the Cougars might just be the surprise team no one saw coming.

This article first appeared on Houston Cougars on SI and was syndicated with permission.

More must-reads: