Canelo Alvarez Vs. Christian Mbilli – How Does It Play Out?

Christian Mbilli says a fight with Canelo Alvarez is at the top of his wish list, as he backed himself to win. 

Mbilli’s comments came following Canelo’s unanimous decision defeat to Terence Crawford. The latter jumped up two weight divisions, but outboxed Canelo to become undisputed at 168, as he became the first man to be undisputed in three-weight divisions. Mbilli felt Canelo is “very old” and cannot sustain a high level in he latter rounds.

However, Mbilli’s path is complicated by a WBC-ordered rematch with Lester Martinez after their controversial draw. If Mbilli does not do the rematch, he would be stripped of his WBC interim belt at 168. A win over Canelo, though, could put him in a position to face Crawford for all the belts. 

“It’ll be a big war. It’s good because he’s getting very old. I don’t know if he can take my pressure or my punch because I throw a lot of punches. I put a lot of energy. I don’t know if he can take it because he’s getting very old. I have a good chance to win if I fight Canelo,” Mbilli said 

The Approach

Mbilli’s approach would be built on his relentless pressure, and high work rate. He would likely use his aggressive style to overwhelm Canelo from the opening bell, throwing punches in bunches to both the head and body. His strategy would be to test Canelo’s stamina and durability, hoping to exploit the fatigue that became apparent in the later rounds of the Crawford fight. The biggest risk for Mbilli is his defense, which has shown to be vulnerable to counter-punchers. 

Canelo’s path to victory would rely on his ring IQ, powerful counter-punching, and his ability to control the pace of the fight. The veteran champion would use his head movement and footwork to avoid Mbilli’s relentless pressure, looking to capitalize on any mistakes the younger fighter makes. Canelo’s greatest weapon would be his left hook to the body, a punch that could slow down Mbilli’s high work rate and wear him out. Canelo would need to be patient, as he would be facing a fighter who is not afraid to let his hands go.