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Emanuel Navarrete vs Oscar Valdez 2: Who Wins?

Originally posted on Fights Around The World
By Abraham Gonzalez | Last updated Dec 5, 2024 7:44 PM ET

Emanuel Navarrete has returned to 130 pounds to defend his WBO junior lightweight title against Oscar Valdez in a rematch Saturday night at Footprint Center in Phoenix.

The two warriors fight for the second time in 16 months. In their first meeting, Navarrete won a one-sided, yet entertaining unanimous decision that saw both fighters have their moments. In August last year, with Navarrete defending his belt handily on the cards, it was a brutal showdown that Valdez had his moments in. Is Valdez (32-2, 24 KOs) catching Navarrete on a downward slide? It’s possible.

The 29-year-old Navarrete (38-2-1, 31 KOs) has not won in his last two fights. In his last appearance at 130 pounds, the Mexican fought Robson Conceicao to a 12-round draw despite scoring multiple knockdowns. He then moved up to lightweight for an opportunity to become a four-weight world champion against Denys Berinchyk. However, despite losing a split decision to the Ukrainian, a majority of ringside observers felt Navarrete had clearly lost and was not a good fit for the weight class. It would seem that Navarrete shared that opinion as he has returned to the division where he has reigned as champion since February 2023.

Valdez returns to the ring for the second time in 2024. In March, he scored a seventh-round TKO of Liam Wilson, who previously lost to Navarrete. The 33-year-old is a former two-division world champion, holding the WBC 130-pound title from 2021 to 2022 and the WBO 126-pound strap from 2016 to 2019. But for most of his career, Valdez hasn’t been able to perform at the elite level. Aside from the defeat to Navarrete last year, he also suffered a shutout loss to Shakur Stevenson in April 2022 in Las Vegas, where Valdez was dropped in the sixth round. To be fair, Stevenson has largely dominated his opposition since turning professional in 2017.

For Valdez to win this fight, a couple of things must go his way. For one, he has to make the necessary adjustments to beat Navarrete. And two, perhaps some regression from his opponent could factor into the equation.

Navarrete Strengths

Navarrete is a very awkward fighter; surprisingly, that is one of his premier strengths. He uses his length to land punches from unusual angles and applies relentless pressure to overwhelm his opposition. Furthermore, Navarrete typically has a great gas tank, and his ability to maintain his high punch output throughout the fight makes it very hard for his opponents to figure him out. Valdez found out for himself in their first encounter.

Valdez Strengths

Valdez is like your local mechanic. He’s a hard-working, humble guy who’s always in his shop. He may not be the best fighter, but he lives and breathes this sport.

24 of his 32 victories have come by way of knockout. That’s a solid 75% of his wins. I’ve interviewed Valdez numerous times and had a fair share of handshakes. Those hands are always hard as rocks. And as we’ve seen throughout his career, Valdez throws every shot intensely. That’s not always a good thing, but that power has been a major strength. He’s also a solid counterpuncher and has a great chin. The kids may not know this, but Valdez battled through a broken jaw to win a rain-soaked fight against Scott Quigg back in 2018 in Carson, California. Immediately following his courageous performance, Valdez was in the back of an ambulance to be evaluated at a nearby hospital. That said, this dude is TOUGH and can score the upset.

And while he’s not perfect, Valdez’s head movement is good enough to avoid taking a ton of damage. It wasn’t good enough against Stevenson, but the latter is a special, once-in-a-lifetime type of talent.

Emanuel Navarrete vs. Oscar Valdez 2 Prediction

The rematch will be better and more competitive than the first fight. Valdez has been working with longtime trainer Eddy Reynoso to refine his techniques, improve speed, and working the body. The body attack from Valdez could help slow Navarrete down the stretch. However, I see Navarrete’s length, movement, and volume still troubling Valdez enough to win the fight, but it will be closer: Navarrete by split decision (115-113) with one judge giving the nod to Valdez.