Francisco Prado vs. Nikolay Veretennikov Prediction, Pick, Odds for UFC 318 (Saturday, July 19)

Check out the Francisco Prado vs. Nikolay Veretennikov prediction for UFC 318 on Saturday, July 19, with my betting preview and breakdown.

The UFC prelims features what is likely a “loser leaves town” match between Francisco Prado and Nikolay Veretennikov. Prado is just 1-3 in the promotion — though he’s picked up two performance bonuses — while Veretennikov is 0-2 in the UFC with an additional Contender Series loss. The 23 year-old Prado might have entered the promotion a bit too early, while the 35 year-old Veretennikov’s prime was probably spent on the regional circuit.

Here’s my Prado vs. Veretennikov pick and prediction.

Francisco Prado vs. Nikolay Veretennikov Odds

Tale of the Tape

While I painted a fairly pessimistic view of both fighters’ Resume coming into this bout, there’s a case to be made that Prado is much better than his UFC record indicates.

Two of his three losses — to Jake Matthews and UFC 318 main card fighter Daniel Zelhuber — have aged extraordinarily well. Both opponents have winning UFC records, and Matthews just picked up a submission in under 70 seconds last weekend. Prado lost somewhat competitive decisions to both, with his fight against Zelhuber winning fight of the night.

His third UFC loss was a short-notice debut in Australia, difficult circumstances for a 20-year-old who had only ever fought in Brazil and Argentina to that point.

The biggest knock on Prado is his size. He’s a classic “tweener” who struggled to make 155 but is noticeably undersized at welterweight. His 69″ reach is among the shortest in the division, and he’s not especially muscular or strong by welterweight standards.

Prado can obviously improve on the latter part of that equation, especially at an age where many athletes are still growing into their adult bodies. That could come at a cost to his best attribute, though, his speed and explosive ability.

Prado has extremely fast hands, which he employs by leaping into the pocket with multiple strikes. That’s a somewhat risky strategy as he leaves himself open to being clipped on the way in, but with the reach disadvantage he often finds himself at, he doesn’t have many better options.

While that’s not a great strategy long term, to date Prado’s chin has held up well enough to allow him to take those shots before landing his own and exiting the pocket.

More technical and voluminous strikers like Matthews and Zelhuber were nevertheless able to out land Prado on the feet, while throwing shots that at least appeared heavier and swaying the judges to their cause.

The crucial question here is whether that description applies to Veretennikov. The Kazakhistani fighter has outlanded each of his UFC/DWCS opponents on the feet, and holds a five-inch reach edge over Prado.

That stat is made even more impressive by the fact that he fought notable strikers Michael Morales and Danny Barlow in two of those fights.

With that said, he’s not an especially high-output striker. His stats are held down by the fact that he’s been stuck on his back for large chunks of his fights in the promotion, but even in a strictly striking fight against Barlow he attempted less than 100 strikes.

That lack of output could swing rounds for the faster Prado, even if both men land at a similar clip. Both tend to swing wildly in exchanges, so it will be hard for judges to determine which shots are actually landing.

The biggest problem for Veretennikov in the UFC has been his grappling defense. He was taken down four times by Michael Morales on the Contender Series, and twice before being finished with ground and pound in his most recent fight.

Prado has just one takedown in the UFC, but he’s 23 years old and training at American Top Team. There’s a good chance his wrestling and grappling levels up exponentially between fights, especially if that’s a part of their game plan for Veretennikov.

Prado vs. Veretennikov Pick, Prediction

In a pure striking match, I’d make this fight about a pick ’em.  Both fighters are somewhat wild, and while Prado has a speed edge, Veretennikov’s length could give him problems.

Of course, this isn’t a pure striking match.

Veretennikov’s substandard grappling gives Prado an additional out, even if he only uses the threat of takedowns to be more effective on the feet. He could also swing some otherwise close rounds his way with a bit of damage on the mat should he land a takedown.

On top of that, the 23-year-old Prado has probably grown — literally and figuratively — significantly in the five months since we’ve seen him, while if anything, Veretennikov’s skills are likely on the decline.

I grabbed Prado at -135 in my early week picks, a line which I correctly guessed would no longer be available. You can still find him at -142 on DraftKings, though, and I’d play his moneyline down to -160.

Billy’s Pick: Francisco Prado -142 (DraftKings)