Is Canelo Alvarez vs Terence Crawford Giving Off Mayweather-Pacquiao Vibes?

The compare/contrast with the 2015 super fight and this big event works to a degree. Mayweather vs. Pacquiao succeeded in some ways, aside from the caliber of fighting. That one did $72 million in gate revenue, while Canelo–Crawford is fixing to be the third highest–grossing gate in boxing history, thumping Canelo–Golovkin’s $27M, and only behind Mayweather vs. Pacquiao and Mayweather vs. McGregor ($55M).

The comparisons, though, tend to make me more worried that stars will align negatively, and this “Fight of the Century” will be recalled as a financial success for a select few, but less fondly by fans.

Purses Were Bloated in 2015

The combined purse for Canelo–Crawford is massive—around $200 million, with Canelo slated to get the lion’s share. Floyd Mayweather made up to $300 million; his guaranteed purse was $100 million, while Manny Pacquiao’s guarantee was $80 million.

Crawford, by contrast, will get $10 million guaranteed “only” to Canelo’s possible $100 million guarantee from Turki’s vault. And there will be no PPV upsides to fatten the take. Maybe this could help motivate Crawford, being that he isn’t in A-plus side territory as an earner.

Mayweather–Pacquiao did 4.6 million PPV buys, and Mayweather took the lion’s share (60/40 split), ballooning his purse from $100 million guaranteed to $250 million.

Netflix vs PPV

This one is a different animal because Netflix is the platform, and it is sturdier than the old PPV construct. Which, by the way, took a bit of a hit, unquantifiable but real, when casuals tuned in May 2 and saw a main event which did not match the words and hopes summoned by hypers and helpers. Mayweather won the massively anti-climactic 12 rounder 118–110, 116–112, 116–112, all in favor of Mayweather at the MGM in Vegas.

Pacquiao entering the fight with a torn rotator cuff provided a final spit in the face to those who dealt with 5.5 years of coverage of “Will They or Won’t They?”

Canelo vs Crawford Will Not Be Hagler-Hearns

It’s money that matters to the crafters and principals, while we, the people, more so still grade in quality of action. I will NOT get my hopes too high that Canelo reverts to 2019 form and Crawford is more the Pitbull of five years ago. Also, boxing is more fringe. Casuals and sub-casuals knew about MayPac. Not so Canelo-Crawford. It is what it is, and that is semi-sad.

Age Is More Than A Number-Usually

More realistic is to note that Canelo is 35; he turned pro at 15 and blew out candles in July. I jokingly refer to him as “Mr. UD12.” His last six outings have gone this route, and only his core likability has kept the boo birds chirping low. November 2021 was arguably his apex, and he is past his prime.

So is Crawford, who turns 38 on September 28. He peaked with the demo job on Errol Spence Jr. in summer 2023 but only eked out a win vs Israil Madrimov in summer 2024. This being his sixth fight in five years, critics note that Bud’s level of sharpness gets dulled by a lack of activity.

For those keeping track, Mayweather was 38 while Pacman was 36 at the time of their slightly polite collision. These two were pretty skilled at promoting themselves by this point. In fact, they battled more like respectful business mates than dogs of war at MGM in 2015.

My Fear Is…

My fear is that the same mood will prevail at Allegiant Stadium. I sure do hope not. But money has a way of affecting people and projects. Do not go in expecting “Fight of the Century” action on Saturday, is my take. Enjoy that you already have Netflix, so there’s no surcharge to see it beyond being a subscriber. And cross fingers we get action on Saturday, so on Sunday, we are not comparing Canelo vs. Crawford to Mayweather vs. Pacquiao, in a bad way.