Jake Paul vs. Anthony Joshua Preview and Prediction

Size, Reach, and the Physical Reality

From a pure matchup standpoint, this fight is intriguing before you even get to resumes. The physical gap is glaring. Joshua stands at 6-foot-6 with an 82-inch reach and is expected to come in around the agreed 245-pound limit.

Paul, meanwhile, is listed at 6-foot-1 with a 76-inch reach and is projected to weigh between 220 and 230 pounds.

That’s a five-inch height difference, a six-inch reach disadvantage, and a meaningful size gap once they’re actually in the ring. And that’s before factoring in Joshua’s championship resume and Olympic pedigree—advantages that exist by a mile, not inches.

Jake Paul Enters the Heavyweight Unknown

What adds another layer of intrigue is that this will be Paul’s first fight at heavyweight. Adding that much mass comes with trade-offs: slower reactions, tighter gas tanks, and less room for error.

Against a much bigger opponent with real heavyweight power, every exchange carries consequences. For Paul, surviving at this weight is one thing. Competing effectively is another.

Records and Recent Competition

The records and recent opposition only widen the contrast. Paul enters with a 12–1 record and seven knockouts, built largely on MMA crossovers, aging legends, and novelty matchups, with Tommy Fury standing as the closest thing to a traditional boxer he’s faced.

Joshua’s 28–4 resume includes 25 knockouts and years spent against elite heavyweight competition, even accounting for recent losses. His recent run features former champions and dangerous contenders—not experiments.

Closest Comparable Opponents

Let’s be honest—the comparisons here are few and far in between. In terms of comparable opponents, Tommy Fury remains the best reference point for Paul. Fury’s foot speed, discipline, and willingness to box exposed Paul’s limitations over eight rounds.

For Joshua, fighters like Otto Wallin or Andy Ruiz offer better parallels—opponents who pressured him, tested his chin, and forced adjustments at a high level. The key difference is that Paul does not bring the same experience or sustained threat.

Keys to Victory: Jake Paul

The keys to victory are stark. For Paul, speed is everything. Fast footwork, quick in-and-out movement, and fast hands are essential if he wants to steal rounds. It’s hard to see Paul committing to power shots, because the danger is very real—overcommitting would likely result in a brutal knockout.

Clinching also isn’t a reliable fallback. Joshua, as the bigger man, could simply lean on him, sap his legs, and turn those moments into punishment. Paul’s only real path is to make this an ugly fight for as long as possible and hope chaos works in his favor.

Keys to Victory: Anthony Joshua

For Joshua, the formula is simple: be Anthony Joshua. Use the longer reach, control distance, and rely on experience and fight IQ. The narrative about Joshua struggling with smaller fighters often ignores the context—those smaller fighters were elite, seasoned professionals.

Is Joshua’s chin a concern at this stage? Probably. The real question is how Paul is supposed to consistently get inside and test it without being stopped.

Prediction

The prediction is straightforward. I don’t believe Joshua is washed. With that said, Joshua wins by TKO via referee stoppage. And let’s be honest—the referee is the main character in this fight.

On a massive Netflix stage, the stoppage will come when it needs to, not when it’s dramatic. Credit to Paul: he’ll make it messy early and may even steal a round. But this doesn’t go past four rounds.

Paul going from calling out fighters like Gervonta Davis to stepping in the ring with an elite heavyweight like Joshua is a massive leap, and Paul deserves acknowledgment for taking it. Win or lose, he’s turned a Friday night into must-see TV—and made a global Netflix audience tune in for the chaos. Here are the early betting odds.