Katie Taylor vs Amanda Serrano Prediction, Odds, Boxing Picks (Friday, July 11)

This is the third time we’re doing this, but in many ways, this isn’t your typical boxing trilogy.

Katie Taylor (24-1, 6 KOs) is the defending Undisputed Super Lightweight Champion of the world entering Friday’s megafight with former Undisputed Champion Amanda Serrano (47-3-1, 31 KOs).

Let’s get into my Katie Taylor vs. Amanda Serrano prediction for tonight.

Taylor vs Serrano Odds

Odds via DraftKings as of Thursday night.

These are two of the best active and all-time Pound-for-Pound boxers walking the earth. And to be honest, that’s not exclusive to women — these two are that good, that accomplished, and that deserving.

How many people could say they’re main eventing Madison Square Garden against the same opponent twice?

The first of these trilogies took place at MSG in April of 2022, and the second — more famously, perhaps — in boxing’s live debut on Netflix late last year as the co-feature leading up to Jake Paul vs. Mike Tyson.

Both fights were close, both won by Taylor, both in a controversial, narrow decision fashion, and in both instances, she arrived and left the champion.

Taylor, 39, has been Undisputed at 140 pounds since 2023 and was the Undisputed Lightweight Champion from 2019 to 2023.

Serrano, 36, has been the Undisputed Champion at featherweight — 126 pounds — but has won world titles across seven different weight classes from super flyweight to super lightweight. The only other boxer to win titles in as many weight classes is Manny Pacquiao.

Taylor vs Serrano Prediction

It’s 2-0 Taylor, but it couldn’t feel much closer, and this time — back in Serrano’s backyard — she’s actually the betting favorite.

Why? Well, think about the NBA Playoffs, which just ended a couple of weeks ago. Typically, when a team goes down 2-0, conventional wisdom suggests somewhat of a correction will come in Game 3 of the series unless there’s an egregious talent disparity. In this case, Taylor edged out the first bout via split decision with scores of 97-93 and 96-93 in her favor, as Serrano received a 96-94 tally on another judges’ scorecard.

In the second fight, Taylor won unanimously, but all three cards read 95-94 each, despite her losing a point due to headbutts. So, while Serrano is 0-2, she’s only down a combined eight points across six judges’ scorecards.

Additionally, many thought she won at least the second bout, if not both.

In the first fight, she outlanded Taylor 173-147, though she threw 624 punches to the champion’s 375, and was nearly 12 percentage points less accurate.

Round by round, Serrano in four of the 10 rounds despite her volume, and tying another, though, she outlanded Taylor a wide 44-14 in Round 5, and was only more accurate in that round despite out-throwing her in all of them. Punch stats are not how a fight is scored — and frankly, I don’t always buy them as 100 percent accurate — but personally, I did think Serrano’s activity and aggression was enough to earn a 96-94 victory.

In the second fight, that was more obviously egregious. Serrano outlanded Taylor a whopping 324 to 217 and even landed 44 percent to 41 percent, proving for a more accurate night despite throwing 734 punches — 73.4 per round.

Serrano outlanded Taylor in every round but the sixth, outlanding her by double digits in Rounds 7-10 as well as the opener, and she was more accurate than the champion in four of the 10 rounds. And remember, Taylor lost a point in Round 8 due to headbutts, and yet, it didn’t underscore the result.

The way the two fights have been judged is that when Serrano wins rounds, she wins them big, but clearly, the scorecards reflect that Taylor’s counterpunching and speed has been — in totality — enough to overcome Serrano’s pressure and activity. I disagree, more vehemently regarding the second fight, but I’m not a judge.

Going back to the NBA analogy, Serrano is the favorite, and the team down 0-2 often would be if they’re back on their homefloor and it isn’t, say, a first round series. These two “teams” are close enough in skill, albeit in different ways, as we’ve seen across 20 rounds.

Taylor vs Serrano Picks

My lean is Serrano gets the decision this time. The scorecards will either show us that Serrano — the betting favorite who has a bigger promotional machine behind her in Jake Paul and MVP, damn near making her the A side despite the two losses — will be rewarded for her aggression and we get a “correction,” or that Taylor’s style continues to make a better impression.

Taylor being up 3-0 just doesn’t sound right. And the push that Serrano has gotten, even in the face of Eddie Hearn and Matchroom, along with the feeling of her being robbed in fight two shared by many, leads me to believe she might get more “50-50” rounds. She’s back at home, which doesn’t hurt either, and for the first time in her career, it feels like Taylor might be walking into the trap.

If you bet Serrano, don’t do it on FanDuel, her odds there are juiced because there’s a partnership there between them and MVP. They won’t give you the best number in this case. I took Serrano on points as a small play at +110 on DraftKings days ago, but at -105, I’m still OK with that.

In a fight this close, I’d always recommend looking at draw, split decision, and majority decision bets. I’m seeing +1200 for a draw on the market, with +800 odds or better for split or majority decisions. In a fight that could be this close, back your winner with sprinkles on those. I’ll do them with Serrano in this case. You’ll likely land in range at the end of the night.

Enjoy the fight, and don’t go broke!