Teofimo Lopez vs. Arnold Barboza Jr: Who Wins?

The opening bell to kick off the pair’s meeting at New York City’s Times Square will be more akin to the spark that ignites a combustible powder keg than a signal for action to begin. Having called for this bout for several years, interim title holder Barboza Jr believes he has been purposely avoided by champion Lopez, who has continuously dismissed the perennial contender’s ability.

“He’s the best fighter I’m about to face,” Lopez said dismissively at Ring Magazine’s Triple Header Roundtable. “There’s a reason why your a*s didn’t want to fight. There’s a reason why Top Rank kept your a*s hidden,” Barboza Jr claimed soon after. All that’s left to decide is the manner in which the old score gets settled.

A Partial or Full ‘Takeover’ of NYC?

The burning questions coming into this bout surround Lopez for the most part. Specifically, fans and pundits alike are pondering just what version of Teofimo they will see.

On the one hand, “The Takeover” has lived up to his moniker, showing the perfect mix of speed, timing, methodical combination, and counterpunching. If one is to cast their mind back to fights with Vasily Lomachenko and Josh Taylor, both pound-for-pound ranked boxers at the time of meeting, Lopez exhibited these abilities, whether pressing the action or fighting on the back foot.

Conversely, there have been puzzling performances, such as those against Sandor Martin and Jamaine Ortiz, that have left many scratching their heads as to how there was such a significant drop-off. On both occasions, Lopez showed pockets of brilliance but a significantly lowered output, throwing 391 and 364 punches, respectively. In his aforementioned career-best performances, these numbers totaled well over 500. Qualitatively speaking then, it might be said that Lopez is a much different fighter when he couples his best attributes together with a gameplan predicated on staying busy.

On paper, it is clear that the physical and skill advantages lie with Lopez. But fights are fought on canvas, and the 27-year-old has tended to be erratic with his performances on said surface. Whether the rollercoaster that is Teofimo’s in-ring craft is flowing smoothly on the tracks or taking twists and turns is yet to be determined.

Can Arnold Barboza Jr. Take A Quantum Leap Forward?

Entering the biggest fight of his career as an underdog seems to be just another day at the office for Barboza Jr, who is no stranger to fighting against the odds. In fact, it has come to define the past 12 months of his career, all while helping to create the chip on his shoulder that he does not carry lightly.

After winning a split decision over Sean McComb in April of last year, one many believed should not have gone his way, the 33-year-old turned in back-to-back stellar performances against Jose Ramirez in Saudi Arabia and Jack Catterall in Manchester. On both occasions, he entered hostile territory with his back to the ropes and out-of-favour with the bookies, only to come out with his hand raised and head held high. Fighting New York native Lopez in the Big Apple is another task in itself, though.

When at his best, Barboza Jr is able to dictate the terms of a contest, often planting himself in the center of the ring, using a long lead leg and jab to keep opponents at a comfortable distance. Despite a tendency to get caught with straight counters, he has been able to slow the pace of the bout and fire off selective combinations with opponents at the end of his lead hand. Subjecting a fighter with the speed and explosiveness of Lopez to such treatment will take another very disciplined effort, but if successful, Barboza Jr will surely see himself injected into the “money fight” mix with the likes of Devin Haney and Ryan Garcia.

Teofimo Lopez vs Arnold Barboza Jr Prediction

Considering how inconsistent the performances by Lopez have been over the past three years, it is still hard to ignore the clear advantages he holds in speed and timing in this contest. For that reason, I suspect he will retain his title, though he will be taken the 12-round distance by the hard-working Barboza Jr.

Teofimo Lopez vs. Arnold Barboza Jr. Betting Odds

Per DraftKings SportsBook, Teofimo Lopez is the favorite at -250, and Arnold Barboza Jr. is the underdog at +200.

Teofimo Lopez: TKO/KO +360; Decision -120

Draw: +1800

Arnold Barboza Jr.: TKO/KO +1200; Decision +260