2025 NCAA Tournament Bracket Breakdown

Potential Champions

Since 2001, 96% of the National Champions held a top-21 KenPom offense, and 91% held a top-31 KenPom defense. Here are the teams who fit this criteria before the tournament begins.

Duke

Duke is a juggernaut. Even though Cooper Flagg missed much of the ACC Tournament with an ankle injury, it sounds like he should be a go for the NCAA Tournament. Duke is top-5 in both offensive and defensive efficiency, per KenPom. They can rebound on both sides of the ball and can defend and shoot both inside and out. This team is complete, and with its best player ready to go, Jon Scheyer could bring his first title to Durham, North Carolina.

Auburn

Auburn got the number-1 overall seat from the committee, but they seemingly limped into the tournament, losing three of their last four games. Johni Broome is a stud, and this team is old and experienced. Even though they hit some roadblocks down the stretch, keep in mind that this team has a top-12 defense and top-2 offense. They do not turn the ball over, and like Duke, they can defend and shoot from anywhere.

Houston

The Cougars are a great team. Kelvin Sampson brought them back to prominence, even after losing a guy like Jamal Shead, who led the charge on offense and defense last year. Houston fans will wait with bated breath on the status of J’Wan Roberts. If he is capable of playing, this Houston team can beat anyone in college basketball. They have the second-best defense and tenth-best offense. They play at a slow pace but can carve a team up from three (shooting almost 40% as a team. The Cougars take care of the ball and can force turnovers, so watch out.

Florida

Florida took care of business in the SEC Tournament. They have the best offensive efficiency in the country, with a top-10 defense. They can crash the glass on offense almost better than anyone, and they hold opponents to less than 30% from deep while shooting well from two-point and three-point land themselves. Todd Golden has them in great shape for a run after only losing four games total this season.

Tennessee

The Volunteers lost the SEC Championship to Florida, but don’t underestimate this team. Rick Barnes has built a formidable defense that holds opponents to the second-worst Effective Field Goal Percentage in college basketball. They are experienced, featuring a starting lineup composed entirely of upperclassmen. This experience could be beneficial for a tournament run. They may be in Houston’s region, but it’s highly likely that these two teams could face off in the Elite 8 game in the Midwest.

Gonzaga

Shockingly, the Zags check the boxes to be a National Champion. They do have an eight-seed and could see Houston in the Round of 32, but the Bulldogs still hold a top-10 offense and top-30. That said, they just meet this threshold, so they would need quite a few upsets to win the title.

Iowa State

Like Houston, the Cyclones need to be healthy to have a shot at the title here. Keshon Gilbert is crucial to this team’s engine, and Tamin Lipsey has also had injury troubles. Neither played in their exit game against BYU in the Big 12 Tournament, but if they can be ready for the NCAA Tournament, this team is DANGEROUS. They have a top-10 defense and can frustrate the absolute daylights out of opponents by forcing turnovers.

Wisconsin

The Badgers are experienced, and although they lost the Big 10 title game to Wisconsin, they have a decent path to the Sweet 16. Wisconsin’s defense just fits within this threshold, but they can limit opponents inside. Their three-point defense is questionable, but these guys make free throws (82.8%), which is critical down the stretch in a tight game.

Potential Cinderellas

High Point

The High Point Panthers cruised through the Big South. They may have the 227th-ranked defensive efficiency, but they can limit teams inside and out. Their issues mainly come from fouling opponents and yielding a good amount of three-pointers. However, the Panthers have a top-25 offense with the 12th-ranked Effective Field Goal Percentage. They could very well beat Purdue and find themselves matched up with another potential Cinderella in McNeese State in the Round of 32.

McNeese State

The Cowboys are led by head coach Will Wade. McNeese plays at a slow pace but ranks in the top 66 in both offensive and defensive efficiency. They can defend both inside and outside the paint and frequently force turnovers against their opponents. After a rough start, they have only one loss since December 22. Additionally, they have an energetic introduction by their manager, similar to how North Carolina State did last year during their Final Four run.

UC San Diego

This is the first time the Tritons are Tournament-eligible out of the Big West. They play slow and boast a top-30 offense. They also shoot the 8th-most threes in college hoops, so when they get hot from outside, they can take teams down. The Clemson Tigers will have their hands full, so keep an eye on this Tritons team surprising opponents and fans around the country.

One of the National Champions will be listed in the above eight I listed. These Cinderella hopefuls are exceptionally tough first-round matchups. Do not be shocked to see any of these three make a run, either. Prepare for the best tournament in sports, folks! It’s bracket time.