Baylor vs. Duke: Current line, win probability, final score prediction for NCAA Tournament showdown

No. 1-seed Duke takes on No. 9-seed Baylor in the Round of 32 on Sunday. The Blue Devils are looking to secure their spot in the Sweet 16 for the third time in four years, while the Bears are seeking their first Sweek 16 since their national title run in 2021.

The Blue Devils handily defeated Mount St. Marys 93-49 in the first round to earn their spot in Sunday’s matchup. Meanwhile, Baylor edged past No. 8-seed Mississippi State 75-72 after the Bulldogs’ late comeback fell short.

Ahead of tip-off, the odds, final score prediction and more have been updated heading into Sunday’s Round of 32 game in the NCAA Tournament. Here’s everything you need to know.

Odds for Baylor vs. Duke

Sunday’s Round of 32 game, Duke (-750) is an 11.5-point favorite over Baylor (+520) in Raleigh, per FanDuel Sportsbook.

The over/under total is set at 143.5 points.

Final score predictions

BPI Predicted winner: Duke
BPI Predicted point differential: 9.4
BPI Win probability (for Blue Devils): 81.8%
BPI Matchup Quality: 90.9

ESPN’s BPI is a model designed to provide a statistical comparison between two teams and predict future success. BPI agrees with Vegas about what to expect from this game. Leading into the game, BPI is projecting a point differential of 9.4 points in the Blue Devils’ favor. It also gives Duke an 81.8 percent chance to win the game over the Bears.

KenPom Predicted final score: Duke 77, Baylor 76
KenPom Win probability (for Blue Devils): 83%

KenPom is another predictive system for college basketball. It’s designed to show how strong a team is at a given time, without taking factors like injuries into account. For this game between Duke and Baylor, KenPom agrees agrees with BPI and Vegas, projecting the Bears to lose.

How to watch Baylor vs. Duke

Time: 2:40 p.m. ET – Sunday, March 23
Channel: CBS, Fubo TV (Streaming)
Location: Lenovo Center – Raleigh, NC

Sunday will be the third all-time meeting between the Blue Devils and Bears. Duke won the first two matchups, with the matest coming in Dec. 2023 where the Blue Devils won 78-70.

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