For 20 Years, the Week 6 AP Top 12 has predicted the NCAA champion

Since 2004, every men's college basketball champion has shared a common trait: they were ranked inside the AP Top 12 in Week 6. It's a pattern as enduring as it is intriguing, and this year's poll might once again predict who cuts down the nets in April.

Tennessee claimed the No. 1 spot in this week's rankings, ending Kansas' reign after the Jayhawks suffered back-to-back losses. The Volunteers are 8-0, with wins over Baylor, Virginia, and Syracuse, and boast the nation's second-best defense and ninth-best offense in adjusted efficiency. For the first time since 2019, Rick Barnes' team is perched atop the AP poll—and they're already making a strong case for national championship contention.

Joining Tennessee at the top are No. 2 Auburn, No. 3 Iowa State, No. 4 Duke, and No. 5 Kentucky. These five teams are also among the oddsmakers' favorites, with all carrying national title odds of 18-1 or better. Historically, it's smart to bet on this group.

The 20-year trend

Over the past two decades, no team outside the Week 6 AP Top 12 has gone on to win the national championship. UConn is a perfect example of this phenomenon. The Huskies were ranked No. 5 in Week 6 last season before capturing their second consecutive title. In 2021-22, they were ranked No. 3 at this same point in the season.

This year, UConn is sitting at No. 18 after a shaky start, including three straight losses in the Maui Invitational. However, their recent wins over Baylor and Texas suggest they could be turning things around. Could they be the team to break the streak?

Top 12 teams

If history holds, one of these 12 programs will win it all:

1. Tennessee (8-0)

2. Auburn (8-1)

3. Iowa State (7-1)

4. Duke (7-2)

5. Kentucky (8-1)

6. Marquette (9-1)

7. Alabama (7-2)

8. Gonzaga (7-2)

9. Florida (9-0)

10. Kansas (7-2)

11. Purdue (8-2)

12. Oregon (9-1)

Among these teams, Tennessee stands out with its defensive dominance, while Auburn and Iowa State have built some of the most impressive resumes so far. Duke, led by freshman phenom Cooper Flagg, continues to rise after a big win over Auburn.

Teams to watch out for

While the Week 6 Top 12 is historically the safest bet, several teams outside that range could make noise.

1. Houston (No. 15): Despite three early losses, the Cougars rank No. 1 in BartTorvik's metrics, with a top-10 offense and defense.

2. UConn (No. 18): The reigning champions still have the talent and coaching to make another deep run.

3. Baylor (Unranked): With a balanced roster and Scott Drew at the helm, the Bears could be dangerous come March.

4. Michigan (No. 14): New coach Dusty May has transformed this team into a Big Ten contender.

5. Illinois (Unranked): A strong 3-point shooting team with an improving defense, the Illini have sleeper potential.

While the streak of champions ranked in the Week 6 Top 12 has endured for 20 years, the depth of talent in college basketball this season makes it plausible for an outlier to emerge. Still, Tennessee, Auburn, Iowa State, and others in the top tier have shown why history favors them.

If this year's champion is lurking outside the Top 12, they'll have to overcome decades of precedent. But if the past is any indicator, the winner's name may already be on this week's list.