March Madness National Championship Betting Trends, Stats, Notes: Action Network Betting Primer

ATS records for both teams this season:

• Florida: 28-11 ATS (35-4 SU)
• Houston: 22-17 ATS (35-4 SU)

If Florida wins it all and covers against Houston, it would finish 29-11 ATS (72.5%). That would be the highest ATS win percentage for a national champion over the last 30 years.

• 2024 Connecticut: 28-12 ATS (70%)
• 2018 Villanova: 28-12 ATS (70%)
• 2023 Connecticut: 27-12 ATS (69.2%)
• 2019 Virginia: 24-12 ATS (66.7%)

How have both teams performed in unfamiliar, nonconference games?

Florida is 17-0 SU and 11-6 ATS vs. teams outside of the SEC this year, including 27-4 SU and 17-14 ATS over the last two seasons. Houston has been pretty good at 13-3 SU and 9-7 ATS (67-10 SU, 44-30-3 ATS since 2020).

Let’s look at how these teams have performed at the half.

This year, Florida is 28-0 SU (23-5 ATS) when leading at the half, including 59-9 SU and 47-21 ATS under Todd Golden. When the Gators trail, they’re 6-4 SU this year and 11-8 SU over the last two seasons, including the win over Auburn on Saturday.

Houston has been a bit different, going 28-3 SU and 18-13 ATS when leading at the half. Its three losses SU are the most for a Cougars team since 2019. When they trail at the half, they’re now 7-1 SU and 4-4 ATS this season after beating Duke — the 7-1 SU mark is the best in the country.

Houston was the ninth team in the last 60 years to play a Final Four game in its home state. The last to do so was Butler back in 2010 and only Michigan State in 2009 has done it as well, dating back to Duke in 1994.

With Houston’s unreal comeback, eight of the nine previous teams won their Final Four game (1980 Purdue lost), but the last to win it all was UCLA in 1975, which Houston looks to match on Monday.

Of the nine teams in their home state, Houston was the third to play the Final Four game as an underdog, and all three won outright. 1974 NC State won it all, and 2009 Michigan State lost in the title game.

A long shot to the Final Four? Sort of.

Florida entered the regular season at 60-1 odds to win it all and was awarded a 1-seed. Since 2009, we’ve had 12 teams listed at 30-1 or higher in the preseason that ended up with a No. 1 seed. Three have now made the Final Four: 2025 Florida, Gonzaga in 2017, and Minnesota in 1997. None have won it all.

Florida opened the tournament by beating Norfolk State but not covering. Then, it beat UConn but couldn’t cover the lofty 9-point spread. The only team since 1985 to start an NCAA Tournament 0-2 ATS and go on to win it all was Arizona in 1997.

The Gators were just the second team to enter a Final Four 1-3 ATS or worse since 2000, joining 2015 Kentucky, which was undefeated SU entering the Final Four and lost to Wisconsin. Of the eight teams to enter the Final Four 1-3 ATS or worse, one won the title — 1999 Connecticut.

Teams that lead at the half in the NCAA Tournament went 25-40 against the second-half spread in this year’s NCAA Tournament entering the National Championship game. That 25-40 2H ATS mark is the worst for any tourney in the last 15 years with one game to go.

In the Round of 32 or later in this year’s tournament, teams that lead at the half are 9-20 against the second-half spread.

It’s crazy, especially when you consider this: Teams that led at the half in the NCAA Tournament were above .500 against the second-half spread in six consecutive tournaments dating back to 2018, going 220-160-5 (58%) against the second-half spread in that span entering this year.

Duke was the favorite and was very much alive in this year’s tournament to win it all — but that dream ended against Houston.

Teams love to beat Duke, but what they do after beating the Blue Devils is the question. Since 2012, teams are 2-8 SU and ATS the round after beating Duke in the tournament. They’re also 3-11 SU in the past 16 years.

Duke, the odds-on favorite to win the NCAA Tournament entering the Final Four, has been knocked out in the semifinal. It become the fifth odds-on favorite entering the Final Four to not even make the title game, joining 2015 Kentucky, 2014 Florida, 1993 Kentucky and 1991 UNLV.

History says Duke or Florida will win it all. Top-two title odds favorites entering Final Four have won it all in 19 of the past 20 tournaments (’14 UConn).

After flip-flopping, Duke and Florida were tied atop the odds board entering the NCAA Tournament at +325.

How have pre-tournament favorites performed in March Madness recently? The pre-tournament favorite has gone on to win it all 10 times since 2000, including UConn last year, and now Florida has that opportunity on Monday.

How does coaching experience — specifically Final Four experience — help? Kelvin Sampson is in his third Final Four, while Todd Golden his first.

• In NCAA Tournament history, the coach with more Final Four experience is 120-70 SU in the Final Four and national title game.
• Since 1978 (start of seeding), the experienced Final Four coach with more experience is 71-45 SU and 62-53-1 ATS in the Final Four and national title game.
• We’ve seen 74 head coaches enter a national semifinal and title game with a two-plus Final Four appearance advantage against their opponent — like Sampson vs. Golden. Those coaches are 48-26 SU and 39-33-2 ATS. Of those 74 coaches, 17 were listed as an underdog. They went 7-10 SU and 11-6 ATS.
• Looking specifically at coaches with a two-plus Final Four advantage, where opposing coach is in his first trip, the experienced coach is 31-16 SU and 21-24-2 ATS. Only nine of those teams were listed as underdogs, and they went 4-5 SU and 5-4 ATS.

Florida beat Auburn, 79-73, to make it to the National Championship, going under the closing total of 158.5. It was the Gators’ first game under the total since Feb. 22. They had gone over in 11 straight games prior.

In the last 20 years of the NCAA Tournament, only three teams have had an 11-game over or under streak entering any NCAA Tournament game, with 2007 USC’s 13-game over streak being the only other 11-game over streak in that span.

Since Jan. 1, Florida has played five nonconference games, and they have all gone over the total.

Including the 1.5-point spread in the title game, Houston has been favored by a combined just 39 points, including the NCAA Championship — Since 1990, only champions have had a mark that low (average spread in NCAA Tournament listed).

• 2023 UConn, -32
• 2016 Villanova, -26
• 2014 UConn, +13.5
• 2011 UConn, -15.5
• 2006 Florida, -24
• 2003 Syracuse, -4
• 1997 Arizona, +3.5
• 1991 Duke, -35

In last year’s NCAA Tournament, Florida was knocked out in the Round of 64 by Colorado in a thriller, and now it’s in the National Championship with a chance for true redemption.

Last year, Purdue had this chance and lost to UConn. If Florida wins it all, it would be the sixth team since 1985 to win it all after a Round of 64 loss, joining 2023 UConn, 2019 Virginia, 2015 Duke, 1995 UCLA and 1987 Indiana.

In the Bet Labs database, which dates back to 2005, the public (51% of spread tickets or more) is 28-30-1 ATS in the Final Four and National Championship game — two games under .500 ATS after going 0-2 ATS on Saturday.

In this year’s tournament, the public is 26-38 ATS, which would be the worst year since the 2016-17 NCAA Tournament for the public betting spreads.

When looking at the biggest public sides in just the Final Four and national title games, they are 0-4 SU and ATS in the Final Four after Duke’s collapse against Houston.

Before Duke, no team had closed with even 62% of the tickets or higher in the Final Four since 2008.

Biggest Public Sides in Final Four Since 2005

The Cougars have played only seven games as an underdog dating back to the start of the 2020 season. They are 5-2 SU and 6-1 ATS in those games, covering the spread by over 8 PPG.

Houston has had tremendous trouble in the second halves this season prior to the game against Duke. The Cougars are 13-24 against the second-half spread. Of 300 teams in the Bet Labs database for CBB this year, they rank 296th in 2H ATS.

Against nonconference opponents this season, they are 4-10 ATS in the second half. Houston hasn’t covered the 2H spread in consecutive games since late January.

Houston has been downright dominant this year. With one regulation loss (Nov. 9 vs. Auburn), it’s currently on an 18-game SU win streak and has just one total loss since Dec. 1.

Plus, its defense has held 23 teams to 60 points or less. The Cougars are 23-0 SU in those games and 33-0 SU when holding opponents to 70 points or fewer.

Updated systems coming Sunday!