Round 1 Thursday Upsets Most Likely to Bust March Madness Brackets

The NCAA Tournament tips off Thursday, and let’s be honest—everyone is here for the upsets. March Madness always delivers those David vs. Goliath moments, where underdogs shock the world and bust brackets everywhere.

The question isn’t if they’ll happen—it’s which ones. This article breaks down four first-round games with serious upset potential. From a tough, defensive-minded squad to one of the hottest teams in the country, a former Cinderella looking for another run, and a star player capable of taking over the moment—these are the spots where chaos could strike.

All odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are subject to change. DraftKings does not sponsor this content.

No. 9 TCU beats No. 8 Ohio State

The Horned Frogs enter the tournament hot, winning eight of their last nine games behind a defense ranked 22nd in efficiency. They force turnovers, control the glass and create tough looks, which targets one of Ohio State’s biggest weaknesses. TCU has also thrived as an underdog this season. With momentum and a physical edge, the Frogs have a strong chance to move on.

No. 11 South Florida beats No. 6 Louisville

The Bulls enter the tournament on an 11-game winning streak after sweeping the American regular season and tournament titles. Their top-50 defense forces turnovers, limits efficient shooting and dominates the glass, creating extra possessions on both ends.

Louisville’s heavy reliance on three-point shooting can be risky on a neutral floor, and uncertainty around Mikel Brown Jr. adds another concern. With momentum and a physical edge, South Florida has a real shot to pull off the upset.