Teams to watch and avoid in the 2019 NCAA Tournament

I know that it is hard to trust in Virginia. Every year it seems that we say this, but the Cavs disappoint us. Last year was the worst, as the No. 1 overall seed became the first team to lose to a 16 seed. De'Andre Hunter missed last year's tournament but is back for this year's. Virginia is actually better defensively this season and a much better three-point shooting team (fourth in the nation). Then look at the Cavaliers' side of the bracket. There aren't many high-octane offenses they could see before the Final Four. You can trust Virginia — and this year I mean it! 

The jerseys still have the name "Kansas" across the chest, but this isn't the same Jayhawks team that started the season with title hopes. Injuries, suspensions and a key player leaving the program have thinned out the roster. Dedric Lawson is a legit stud, but he isn't surrounded by the kind of talent the team thought it would have when the season began. Don't get me wrong: This is a good team that could be dangerous if it can get to the second weekend in Kansas City. The problem is that opponents have been lighting up the Jayhawks from the outside and they will likely have to face good shooting teams in Northeastern, Auburn and North Carolina if they want a shot at the Final Four. 

I know you've heard about Wofford all year long, but I'm sure you were a bit surprised to see it as a No. 7 seed. This is a legit team. The Terriers shoot the three ball so well (and a lot of different guys do it). They also have a star player in Fletcher Magee (20.5 ppg), who will take big shots. If they are patient offensively against Seton Hall in the first round, they can get great shots and pull off the win. After that, they have an opportunity to knock off Kentucky. 

It is tempting to pick Seton Hall to beat Wofford in the first round matchup, but that may not be the wisest move. Wofford is an outstanding three-point shooting team, and the Pirates defense relies on forcing perimeter looks. Myles Powell is outstanding, but he'll need to be hitting if they plan on upsetting the Terriers. The other guys aren't as reliable at making shots, so if Powell's uncomfortable then the Pirates can be beaten. 

The last time we saw the Cougars in the NCAA Tournament, they lost on an improbable shot by Michigan in the second round. While this Houston team is a bit different, it's still efficient on offense and defense and has a giant chip on its shoulder. Corey Davis Jr. has taking on the leadership role that Rob Gray held last year. He is a two-way star who stays within himself, like the entire team does, and makes smart decisions. The Cougars have a tough road if they want to get to the Final Four, but they have the discipline and the defense to make it happen. 

You see Louisville in the NCAA Tournament, and you expect a tough team that can cause some damage. Well, new head coach Chris Mack did a fantastic job in a tough situation, but the Cardinals aren't exactly scorching coming into the Dance. They've lost seven of their last 10 games...including a seven-point defeat against Boston College. Ever since their meltdown loss to Duke back in February, the Cardinals have lost confidence. The fact that they have to play Richard Pitino's Minnesota team is unfortunate with the recent issues with his father, Rick. Even if they beat the Gophers, don't expect them to hold up against Michigan State. 

Sam Merrill is a legit player (averaging 21.2 ppg), and the guards don't make too many mistakes. Neemias Queta is a big man who is a force on the glass and can block shots. The Aggies tied Nevada, which spent most of the season in the top 10 of the rankings, for the Mountain West regular-season title and beat San Diego State for the conference tournament title. If they get to play North Carolina, they could give the Tar Heels all they can handle. 

Maryland is talented. The Terrapins have two NBA-caliber players in Bruno Fernando and Jalen Smith and are efficient on offense. They are also extremely young with a lot of freshman playing, and no one on their top eight has won a postseason game. Maryland's loss to Nebraska in its first Big Ten Tournament game was its third loss in its last four games. The winner of Belmont and Temple will be a tough battle for the young Terps.

The Ducks enter the tournament on a eight-game winning streak...beating fellow tournament teams Washington and Arizona State twice in that span. This may be head coach Dana Altman's best coaching job down the stretch. They had high expectations but failed to meet them, especially when highly touted freshman Bol Bol suffered a season-ending injury. Payton Pritchard was a key player on Oregon's Final Four team in 2017. The Ducks have a favorable draw to make a Sweet 16 run. 

The Hawkeyes lost five of their last six games, with the only win coming against Illinois in the Big Ten Tourney. It wasn't as if those losses were nail biters either — three of them were by at least 20 points. Their defense is shaky at best, which is why they will try to out run an opponent on offense. The problem is their offense hasn't been able to keep the pace either. 

The last two times the Orange made the tournament, they made deeper-than-expected runs. In 2016, they reached the Final Four, while last year they reached the Sweet 16. This season Syracuse is an eight seed and actually has a favorable bracket. If Tyus Battle is healthy...and that's a big if...the Orange will have an offense to go with their zone to stifle Baylor and then be a problem for top-seeded Gonzaga. Jim Boeheim is the only coach in the West Region to have won a national championship.

The Cyclones had a fantastic Big 12 Tournament, winning the championship. But they did go up against a Kansas State team missing Dean Wade and then a Kansas team that has suffered a lot of roster issues this year. Also remember that Iowa State had lost five of six games heading into the conference tournament. The Cyclones aren't a great rebounding team and could go up against Houston and Kentucky if they can get past a decent Ohio State. After the Big 12 title run, many people will be bullish on Iowa State. They may need to hold off on that. 

Purdue must have felt great to see Minnesota placed on the other side of the bracket, since the Gophers are the only team to have beaten the Boilermakers (and did so twice) over the last eight games. Purdue has won 17 of its last 20. This team is built around Carsen Edwards and his ability to score from anywhere. Edwards takes most of Purdue's shots, but the team still owns one of the more efficient offenses. The Boilermakers also have 7-foot-3 Matt Haarms, who keeps defenses from focusing exclusively on defending the three. Their style of play should be fine in their bracket so they could go further than their Sweet 16 effort last year. 

LSU won the SEC regular season title, but things haven't been so rosy. Head coach Will Wade has been suspended, and a bit of chaos has surrounded the program. The Tigers have dealt with some injuries and were unceremoniously knocked out of the SEC Tournament in the quarterfinals. While they were conference champs, they won five games in overtime (and lost a sixth overtime game), and 11 of their 18 games were decided by five or less points or went into overtime. The point is that they rarely overwhelm opponents even though they have one of the more efficient offenses led by a star in Tremont Waters. 

Belmont has three scorers to worry about: Dylan Windler (21.5 pts), Kevin McClain (16.3) and Nick Muszynski (14.9). The Bruins are one of the top scoring and assist teams in the nation with an offense that wants to run constantly. They are the Houston Rockets of college basketball but shooting mostly threes or layups. Since the First Four was established in 2011, at least one team playing in it has advanced to the round of 32. Put Maryland on upset alert.

According to most statistics out there, over 40 percent of all brackets have Duke winning the national championship. Duke is great, but the last three overall No. 1 seeds to win the national championship were the 2013 Louisville Cardinals, 2012 Kentucky Wildcats and the 2007 Florida Gators. Just because you are the best team entering the tournament doesn't mean you are a cinch to win it. The last two top overall No. 1 seeds didn't even make it out of the first weekend, and the last one to make a Final Four was Kentucky in 2015. Duke is great but is flawed. The Blue Devils are not a great three-point shooting team, they can have some bad nights shooting free throws and they're not deep. Marquis Bolden's injury could be a problem. This isn't to suggest that Duke can't win the national championship, because it certainly can, but this isn't some unbeatable team that will coast to a title.