Three Keys and a Prediction: Vanderbilt vs. Auburn

Somehow, some way keep Auburn off the offensive glass

Vanderbilt’s defensive rebounding numbers are actually significantly better than the perception around them would indicate, but Auburn has a way of changing that. 

The Tigers are No. 13 in the country in offensive rebounding efficiency and can completely alter a game through their work on the glass. For a Vanderbilt frontcourt that lacks depth and true bulk, it’s got margins that aren’t all that wide. 

It is worth noting that although Auburn is ranked in the upper-echelon of teams in the country in offensive rebounding this season, it’s No. 4 in SEC play–meaning it’s not all that unlike a lot of the teams that Vanderbilt has seen in the league to this point. 

Can AK Okereke slow down Keyshawn Hall? 

Hall is the SEC’s second-leading scorer with his 21.0 mark and is the type of player that Vanderbilt brought AK Okereke in to defend against. 

The Auburn forward is a difficult matchup because of his 6-foot-7 frame, ability to score it at all-three levels and ability to put it on the deck in order to create his own shot. Hall is nationally ranked in 12 efficiency categories–with his best metric being fouls drawn per 40 minutes, which isn’t a good sign for Vanderbilt. 

Okereke is the natural matchup for Hall here and appears to be the key to Vanderbilt winning on Tuesday night. He doesn’t have to shut Hall down, but he’s got to stay on the floor and make things difficult for him. 

Vanderbilt needs to get more from its depth pieces

The difference in Saturday’s loss to Oklahoma and Vanderbilt’s win the week prior against Ole Miss didn’t have anything to do with Frankie Collins and Duke Miles’ absences. The narrative surrounding Saturday’s Vanderbilt loss has had more to do with Collins than anything, but Vanderbilt didn’t have him or Miles in either of those games. 

What really became the difference in Vanderbilt finding a way vs. not finding a way came in the form of the replacements that Mark Byington was counting on to step up. 

Vanderbilt guard Mike James went for nine points and hit a timely shot a week ago against Ole Miss. Saturday, he went scoreless and was able to give Vanderbilt just half of the minutes that he normally did against Ole Miss. Vanderbilt also only got a combined 10 points from Tyler Harris, Jayden Leverett and Chandler Bing in its Saturday loss. 

Byington is likely to be without Collins and Miles again on Tuesday and needs James–in particular–to step up without them on the floor. 

Prediction: Auburn: 80, Vanderbilt: 76

It just doesn’t appear that Vanderbilt has enough on its roster right now to go into the Jungle and win against an Auburn team that can get it in foul trouble and may will better guard play than it unless James steps up. It’s going to take a strong effort for Vanderbilt to avoid its second-consecutive loss.

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• Slow Start, Lack of Defense Bites Vanderbilt in the End Against Oklahoma