UC San Diego a Trendy Pick but Michigan too much: Tritons look to extend magical first Division I season with 16th straight victory

In its first season since transitioning from Division II to Division I, UC San Diego not only won the Big West—finishing on a 15-game winning streak—but also earned its first trip to the NCAA Tournament.

It’s an impressive story, worthy of a Cinderella ending. But I am not buying.

No. 12 UC San Diego vs No. 5 Michigan

Thursday, March 20
7:00 pm PT, TBS
South Region, Denver

Yes, the Tritons have had a great season. And yes, it would be easy to pick them given the Madness of March.

But Michigan is a strong shot-blocking team, shares the ball on offense, and is a borderline elite rebounding group.

KenPom has the Wolverine defense at No. 13 nationally, and they run a much quicker tempo than UC San Diego.

If Michigan plays the game at its desired pace, its defensive strength and rebounding should shine through.

The X-Factor, however, is turnovers.

The Tritons are the No. 2 team in the country in turnovers forced per game while the Wolverines are No. 334 out of 355.

That creates some analytical tension that arguably favors UC San Diego.

If Michigan runs a high pace while turning the ball over excessively, the Tritons will have more opportunities to score.

And considering that UC San Diego is No. 54 nationally in three-point percentage, it’s no wonder that so many people are taking the Tritons to win.