Why Cal Could Exceed USA Today, The Athletic ACC Basketball Predictions

The Athletic and USA Today this week came out with their projections for the ACC basketball season and neither was kind to Cal.

However, there is reason to believe Cal can exceed those expectations based on a few factors.

First, we will consider what The Athletic and USA Today said about Cal.

The Athletic predicted Cal will finish 14th in the 18-team ACC with this explanation:

14. California

Last season: 14-19

Coach: Mark Madsen (third season)

California's projected starting 5

Dai Dai Ames, G, Jr., 8.7 PPG, 1.9 APG, Virginia

Justin Pippen, G, So., 1.6 PPG, Michigan

Chris Bell, F, Sr., 9.3 PPG, 2 RPG, Syracuse

John Camden, F, Gr., 16.8 PPG, 5.5 RPG, Delaware

Milos Ilic, C, Gr., 14.4 PPG, 7.5 RPG, Loyola-Maryland

Top bench players: Rytis Petraitis (8.2 ppg, 5.7 rpg); DJ Campbell (7.8 ppg, 2.5 rpg); Lee Dort (3.6 ppg, 4.6 rpg); Nolan Dorsey (9.1 ppg, 6.3 rpg at Campbell); Mantas Kocanas (2 ppg at Florida Atlantic)

Biggest losses: Andrej Stojakovic (17.9 ppg, 4.7 rpg); Jeremiah Wilkinson (15.1 ppg, 1.9 rpg); Jovan Blacksher (10.5 ppg, 2.5 apg); Mady Sissoko (8.3 ppg, 8.2 rpg); Joshua Ola-Joseph (7.2 ppg, 3.8 rpg)

Why they’re here: Madsen doesn’t have a star, but he does have an entire roster of role players who could seemingly fit together. Ames and Bell aren’t raising anyone’s ceiling at the high-major level, but they’re competent and should give the Golden Bears some framework to operate within. Petraitis, Campbell and Dort can give solid minutes, while Camden and Ilic were both productive at lower levels. Pippen, a former four-star recruit, is the wild card; if he hits, Madsen could have something on his hands.

USA Today was even less optimistic about Cal’s season, predicting the Bears will finish 16th in the ACC based on a poll of USA Today Network reporters who cover ACC teams.

No Cal player was on the USA Today preseason all-ACC first or second team, and no Cal player was even among the 11 players who received honorable mention.

Cal was just 6-14 in the ACC last season, so why do the Golden Bears have a chance to exceed the low expectations presented by these two sites this season?

The main thing is that the ACC has few stars and few elite teams.

The ACC had only four teams make the NCAA tournament last year, and it was a surprise that North Carolina made it.  This year, Joe Lunardi of ESPN Bracketology predicts at this early stage that only five ACC teams will make the NCAA tournament field. That’s compared with 14 Southeastern Conference teams predicted to make the field and 11 from the Big Ten.

Duke and Louisville are the only ACC teams expected to begin the season ranked among the top 15, and neither is likely to be in the top five.

Also, the ACC does not have many star players.

Duke’s Cameron Boozer, Louisville’s Mikel Brown Jr. and North Carolina’s Caleb Wilson are expected to be early first-round picks in the 2026 NBA draft, but all three are freshmen who have yet to be tested in a college game.

Cal’s starting lineup for 2025-26 might be made up entirely of players who transferred to Berkeley after last season. But nearly all the ACC schools have had similar roster turnover, so that is not a major factor.

Plus, Cal adds two freshmen, Jovani Ruff and Semetri Carr, who could have a significant impact this season. You will recall that Jeremiah Wilkinson became a star last season as a Cal freshman before moving on to Georgia. It’s always difficult to determine how much influence freshmen will have on a team’s season.

Cal’s team this season is made up of a lot of complementary players who seem to fit together well, and that's more important than star power when it comes to winning basketball games. If they play fast and free, share the ball the way Mark Madsen suggested Wednesday, and improve their team defense, the Bears should be able to stay with a lot of ACC teams. A few breaks here and there could be all the Bears need to finish in the top half of the standings.

Louisville was picked to finish ninth in last year’s preseason ACC basketball poll, and the Cardinals finished with an 18-2 ACC record, a close second to Duke, and handed the Blue Devils their only conference defeat. At least one team picked near the bottom makes a surprising rise in the standings each season.

The ACC preseason media poll, the one that carries the most weight, will not be released until next week, probably October 14.