2022 CFB win total: Best bets to get 10+ wins

Last year every conference except for the MAC had a team finish with 10 or more wins. Sure, a few of those teams might have grabbed a win or two in a conference championship and/or bowl game to ge there but the broader point is that 10+ win seasons are not such a rarity.

Nevertheless, one wager that caught my eye leading up to the season is taking a team to hit on 10+ wins. There are not odds for every FBS team, but more than enough to find some really good values.  As with so many wagers, the elite teams are not offering much value with this prop. At the top of the table, Alabama is -3500, Ohio State and Georgia are -2000, and even Clemson, with questions at quarterback is -600.

However, you can find some really good value with a bet like this, maybe even more so than taking a team to win its conference because in that case, they have to get a win in the most important game of the season, which can be more difficult to predict.

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Here are some teams that I really like to perform at a high level. Whether that is an overperform or not is in the eyes of the beholder.

Five Teams to Back to get 10+ Wins This Season

Houston Cougars +125

Last year Cincinnati was the best team in the history of the AAC (they even made the College Football Playoffs). That overshadowed the fact that Houston won 12 games and returns more talent than the Bearcats this year so they probably rule the league. They also avoid Cincy during the regular season and all of their nonconference games are winnable. They are a nice bet to double your money with. 

Fresno State Bulldogs +120

The Bulldogs have a new "old" coach in Jeff Tedford. They almost lost their QB to Washington up the coast but Jake Haener stayed the course and now they have a great chance to be the best team in the Mountain West Conference. I would make them favorites in every game except for their trip to USC. Even in that one, I might take the points with the Bulldogs as an underdog. 

Appalachian State Mountaineers +230

The Sun Belt is expanding this season but it is still pretty obvious who the top teams are. App State is one of the steadiest programs in the country and also one of the bravest. They are taking on two Power Five programs in North Carolina and Texas A&M in the non-conference. They can split those games and still afford to drop a game in the league and get there.

Coastal Carolina +350

Two teams from the Sun Belt?  Why not? Coach Jamey Chadwell is still around and so is quarterback Grayson McCall. The non-conference is far from lethal and the Chanticleers have the luxury of playing App State at home. The one game I am worried about is a late-season trip to Virginia. The Cavs have a new coach but will have most of their season under their belt at the time. CCU might take their foot off the gas for that one but they also might be favored. Another 10+ wins is expected.

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Northern Illinois +1600

The Huskies are playing 2 SEC teams this fall but I still like their outlook a lot. Those games are against Vanderbilt and Kentucky, not Alabama and LSU, and a split is very reasonable. Sorry, Commodores fans. The MAC is often very balanced but I can see Northern Illinois getting the 7 additional wins they need to get to 10, especially with Toledo at home. 

Just like last season, there will be programs like Pitt or Michigan State that overperform but getting to that level in a major conference is trickier to predict because it usually means another program is failing more than expected.

These teams will give you lots of games to root in over the course of the season and that has a nice value to it too. 

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