2025 Rate Bowl Prediction: Minnesota vs New Mexico

How To Watch Minnesota vs New Mexico

Date: Friday, December 26
Game Time: 4:30 pm ET
TV: ESPN
Location: Chase Field, Phoenix, AZ

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Why New Mexico Will Win

This group is tough as nails, brings the defensive heat, controls games, runs well ... it's like Minnesota.

There's a good balance to the attack, but everything revolves around the running game. It's not surprising, considering the head coach was an offensive lineman for Wisconsin.

When the Lobos run for more than 80 yards, they're 9-0. The three losses came to Michigan, Boise State, and in a strange game against San Jose State when the passing attack took over.

This isn't your normal Minnesota team under P.J. Fleck

It's okay at running the ball, but it isn't fantastic. His teams usually dominate the time of possession battle, but not this one.

It's been a struggle to grind out drives, and this Lobo team loaded with sure-thing tacklers doesn't get bowled over. However ...

Why Minnesota Will Win

Minnesota is good when Drake Lindsey completes passes.

He's a strong young passer who hasn't been consistent, but when he's on with the midrange game, everything else tends to click. 

So no, this isn't your normal Minnesota team because it doesn't grind out rushing yards. But it doesn't get hit with penalties, and it dominates the turnover margin.

The style was a problem on the road and against the better teams, but New Mexico has a big turnover problem, giving it away multiple times in seven games, and going 1-3 when giving it up three or more times.

The Gophers will win the turnover battle, they'll run the ball a little bit early, and then it'll be about a defense that should get into the backfield against a New Mexico line that can run block, but isn't good in pass protection. And ...

Minnesota vs New Mexico Prediction, Betting Lines

New Mexico's pass defense is just okay.

The Lobos were able to get by in the Mountain West, and it barreled over UCLA, but it'll give up well over 200 yards to Lindsey, who should connect on close to 70% of his throws.

Here's the problem with that. There won't be anything downfield, and again, this Lobo defense can tackle.

The Big Ten bulk and talent will come through in the second half, but Minnesota is 7-0 at home, 0-5 away from Minneapolis, and New Mexico won't go away until late.

But it's P.J. Fleck. He wins bowl games.

Minnesota 26, New Mexico 20
Line: Minnesota -2.5, o/u: 45.5
ATS Confidence out of 5: 3.5
Must See Rating: 3.5
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Consensus Line from BetMGM, Caesars, DraftKings, and FanDuel. Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.